..the evening news media dramatises a forthcoming government declaration of a‘Total Fire Ban’. Next day yep, dry and hot, then early afternoon wind picks up. Yep, having mapped target, and with no-one around, opportunity to be ‘Bushfire Hero’…
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7th Feb 2009, 1:30pm – a pine plantation near Churchill, West Gippsland:
Of the thousands of bushfires that burn Australia’s natural landscape each year, humans cause the vast majority, with somewhere around half of these being deliberately lit, that is, not by accident.
Bush Arson is a serious and heinous crime now systemic in bushfire-prone Australia, California and southern forested regions of Europe. It is committed usually by misfit serial offenders, yet despite the statistics, across all states in Australia from Tasmania to the Top End, the crime remains largely given lip service by governments.
Researchers at the Australian Institute of Criminology have assessed that there are many reasons why people light fires. While some want to relieve boredom by creating havoc and excitement, other arsonists crave recognition or attention. Some light fires out of anger or protest while others believe they are being altruistic by clearing what they see as dangerous fuel-loads. Sometimes there are multiple motives.
People who light fires for excitement will often stay around after the fire to view their handiwork, which suggests that fire crews should look around and talk to the people who are there watching. Knowing that some people light fires just so they can treated as a hero if they report the fire or put it out is also useful, especially for fire services screening new members.
Some of those people who light those fires do become members of fire services, and this needs to be a consideration in the firefighting recruitment process.
The 2009 Victorian Bushfires, collectively branded by the media as ‘Black Saturday’, involved far many more bushfires that the ones that ignited and reported by the media on Saturday 7th February 2009.
‘The number of fires that had not been extinguished rose from seven on New Year’s Day to 29 on 14 January. Then it doubled to 58 by 25 January and continued to steadily increase to 125 in the week before 7 February. By this time firefighting resources had been committed for a fortnight responding to new fires and attending to fires already contained or controlled.’
[Source: ‘The Number of Fires’ in Overview, Part One: ‘The January-February 2009 Fires’, Vol I: ‘The Fires and the Fire-Related Deaths’ p.4 citing the Department of Sustainability and Environment – Annual Report 2009 (TEN.201.001.0001) at 0047, in Final Report, July 2010, Vol. 1, p.20, by 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, State Government of Victoria ]
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According to the Victoria Country Fire Authority, of the fires that were not readily contained on or before 7 February, 14 of those 47 became ‘major fires’. On 7th February alone however, the CFA indicated there were a total of 1386 incidents reported on 7 February — 592 grass and bushfires, 263 structure fires and 156 reported incidents that were false alarms.
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[Ed: Clearly the bushfire conditions were extreme (beyond the usual ‘Total Fire Ban’ severity), the number and distribution of bushfires were considerable and emergency resources were overwhelmed. So for bush arson to be committed on such a declared day was beyond arson; it was ‘pyroterrorism’. But the crime does not yet feature in the Crimes Act. It needs to be. The penalty needs to be equated to that which would be imposed upon a terrorist attempting or actually causing mass murder. It is past time that Australia’s lackadaisical and euphemistic term ‘fire bug‘ is cast to history. We owe this to the memory and respect of 173 people lost. What is significant is that of the 173 who died, most were due to either arson or powerline spark – both human caused].
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The bushfires associated with Black Saturday that were selected to be investigated by the Victorian Royal Commission were on the basis of fires having caused the death of the 173 people and/or where significant damage had occurred.
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2009 Bushfires investigated by the Royal Commission
The investigated bushfires numbered twelve and they were:
Kilmore East Bushfire
Murrindindi Bushfire
Churchill Bushfire
Delburn Bushfire
Bunyip Bushfire
Narre Warren Bushfire
Beechworth-Mudgegonga Bushfire
Bendigo Bushfire
Redesdale Bushfire
Coleraine Bushfire
Horsham Bushfire
Pomborneit–Weerite Bushfire
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[Ed: NOTE: We include the suffix ‘bushfire’ above, unlike the Royal Commission in its literature which abbreviates ‘bushfire’ just to ‘fire’, or even drops the reference to fire completely, bless their imported cotton socks].
2009 Victorian Bushfires – Overview Map
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It is instructive to emphasise that the eventual naming of these fires was based on the point of origin, however on the day it had proven problematic during the overwhelming speed and complexity of the multiple simultaneous bushfire emergencies.
The lead item in the Terms of Reference for the Victorian Royal Commission was sensibly to inquire into ‘the causes and circumstances of these bushfires‘.
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The Bushfires Deliberately Lit *
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Of the above 12 bushfires investigated, those known or suspected to have been caused by arson or otherwise in obscure firefighting-speak ‘undetermined‘ or ‘unknown‘ were:
Murrundindi Bushfire
Delburn Bushfire
Redesdale Bushfire
Upper Ferntree Gully Bushfire
Bendigo Bushfire
Churchill Bushfire
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*Various vague assessments as to cause included ‘suspicious’, ‘unknown’, ‘undetermined’, which in 2012 is unacceptable. Compare the term ‘undetermined‘ to any police investigation into an urban fire causing significant damage; such a vague dismissal would be publicly unacceptable. So in the absence of competent investigation, we shall presume bush arson. So half were caused by arson, which is in line with the Australian Institute of Criminology’s conclusions, above.
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The Murrindindi Bushfire
With bushfire conditions extreme (temperature 44.6°C, humidity 8%, wind 46kph, Bushfire Index 110 – off the scale), the bushfire started about 14:55 on 7 February 2009, to the north of a sawmill in Wilhelmina Falls Road, Murrindindi. The cause was assessed as ‘suspicious’.
After the bushfire had merged with the Kilmore East Bushfire some 168,542 hectares had been burnt. Forty people were killed, another 73 people were injured, 538 houses were destroyed or damaged, mainly in and around Marysville, Narbethong and Buxton. The commercial centre of Marysville was razed to the ground. Firefighting resources involved 195 CFA and 311 NEO personnel, supported by 45 CFA appliances, 22 Networked Emergency Organisation (NEO)* appliances and 3 aircraft.
* [Ed: Networked Emergency Organisation? – a rather new convoluted bureaucratic term given to the Royal Commission to collectively represent a mix of disparate government agencies quickly cobbled together to deal with an emergency outside the control of the Country Fire Authority volunteer base].
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The Delburn Bushfire
With bushfire conditions similarly extreme, albeit with a lower Fire Index of 52, this bushfire started as three separate ignitions in the Strzelecki Ranges on 28 and 29 January 2009:
The Ashfords Road Bushfire – discovered on 28 January at about 4.00 pm, 2.5 kilometres north-north-west of Boolarra.
The Creamery Road Bushfire – discovered at about 1.00 pm on 29 January, 2.5 kilometres east of Delburn.
The Lyrebird Walk–Darlimurla Bushfire – discovered at about 3.30 pm on 29 January, 4 kilometres north of Mirboo North near Darlimurla.
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[Ed: So each started under extreme bushfire conditions in the early afternoon]
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The causes of both the above Creamery Road Bushfire and the Lyrebird Walk–Darlimurla Bushfire were assessed as ‘suspicious’ and the Victorian Police have since laid criminal charges against the suspected arsonist.
The three separate bushfires were not contained and ultimately merged. Increasing wind and changes in wind direction caused spotting and resulted in the bushfire spreading quickly east towards the outskirts of the townships of Boolarra and Yinnar. The surrounding townships included Mirboo North (population 1,300), Boolarra (pop. 600), Yinnar (pop. 600) and Churchill (pop. 5,000). Fortunately there were no fatalities or casualties, but 44 houses were destroyed maily on the outskirts of Boolarra, and some 6,534 hectares burnt out. Firefighting resources involved 597 CFA and 699 NEO personnel, supported by 112 CFA appliances, 103 NEO appliances and 14 aircraft.
Delburn Bushfire 30th January 2009 from NASA satellite
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There had been a further three ignitions around the time (1) at the Delburn–Yinnar refuse transfer station, (2) at Ten Mile Creek Rd in a Hancock Victoria Plantation and (3) at Brewsters Rd, Yinnar. Each was either contained or burnt out without fire-fighting intervention.
.The 2009 Delburn Bushfire
A CFA firefighter runs out hose on Piggery Road at Boolarra 2nd February 2009.
(Photo by Greg Cahir)
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The Redesdale Bushfire
The Redesdale Bushfire started with similar bushfire conditions (temperatures reaching 44.7°C, humidity 7%, winds up to 50kph, Bushfire Index 87.2). The bushfire was reported at 3:11 pm on 7 February 2009.
According to the CFA, the ignition started in a creek bed on open farmland between the eastern bank of the Coliban River and the northern end of Summerhill Road, about two kilometres to the west of the township of Redesdale, about 95 kilometres north-west of Melbourne and 35 kilometres south-east of Bendigo. There were more than 100 houses in the bushfire area.
The cause of ignition of the Redesdale fire has been investigated but ‘not determined‘. Possible sources of ignition that have not been excluded are:
(a) ignition by a spark or hot exhaust system
(b) deliberate ignition
(c) ignition by farm operations
(d) ignition by a carelessly discarded cigarette butt
There was no evidence that any of these sources ignited the fire.
The bushfire burned towards the south-east for about 19 kilometres. It was the first of two bushfires in the region on that day, the second originating
in Maiden Gully, 8 kilometres north-west of Bendigo, around 4:20pm. Fortunately again there were no fatalities, but one reported casualty, 14 houses destroyed as well as more than 50 farm sheds and outbuildings, the Baynton church and a bridge, two olive oil plantations, a vineyard and two blue gum plantations, and 7,086 hectares were burned.
Firefighting resources required were 536 CFA and 127 NEO personnel, supported by 103 CFA appliances, 21 NEO dozers and 1 aircraft. Two CFA forward control vehicles were damaged in the course of the fire fight.
The Upper Ferntree Gully fire started on Saturday 7th February 2009 at about 3:40 pm in a suburban railway corridor through bushland between the Burwood Highway and Quarry Road. The bushfire conditions were extreme as with the entire State. By mid afternoon the wind had picked up and was gusting to 90kph, exacerbating the conditions.
The cause of the fire was not known. The fire initially spread by spotting south-east through scrubland between the Burwood Highway and Quarry Road near houses. By 4:30pm an air crane was requested and just after 5pm the Erikson Aircrane nicknamed ‘Elvis’ had made a number of rapid water drops on the fire, obtaining water from a nearby disused quarry, critically preventing the loss of houses and finally contained by 6pm. There were no fatalities or casualties and no houses were lost, but 4 hectares of regenerated scrubland was burnt.
Erickson S-64 Air-Crane Helitanker (N179AC)
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[To stop video and continue, click the pause button bottom left]
Repeat Offenders? – same place lit again in January 2012: a hot, dry, windy afternoon, familiar turf
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‘Members of the Upper Ferntree Gully cricket team were quick to report a grass fire that started near Quarry Rd. Firefighters from Ferntree Gully and Upper Ferntree Gully attended the blaze, which was reported about 7.15pm on Friday. Upper Ferntree Gully CFA captain Peter Smith said the fire started in vegetation-regeneration area near Quarry Rd.
“It was a grass and scrub fire at the old quarry of probably about a third of a hectare,” Mr Smith said. “Conditions were on our side but we wouldn’t have wanted it any hotter or windier.”
About five trucks responded to the blaze and Mr Smith praised the efforts of those who called 000.
“The people that spotted it were fantastic,” Mr Smith said. “They were local guys from the Upper Ferntree Gully Cricket Club I think, that helped us get in and assisted police.”
The cause of the fire is unknown and being investigated.‘
The Bendigo Bushfire started shortly after 4pm on Saturday 7th February 2009 in the tinder dry hilly bushland of Maiden Gully, 8 km north-west of central Bendigo. Bushfire conditions were extreme (temperatures up to 45.4°C, humidity 6%, winds up to 41kph and the Bushfire Index off the scale at 129). The ignition cause was assessed as ‘suspicious’ – the arsonist was classically upwind of the outskirts of targeted western Bendigo.
The bushfire burned through gently rolling country bordering the city’s western suburbs, where there are numerous former gold diggings that are now public open space interspersed between suburban blocks. One person died as a result, plus there were 41 reported casualties. Some 58 homes were destroyed and 341 hectares burned out.
Firefighting resources required were 152 CFA and 111 NEO personnel, which were supported by 30 CFA appliances, 31 NEO appliances and 3 aircraft.
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The Churchill Bushfire
2009 Churchill Fire Map Overview
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The Churchill Bushfire started at 1:30pm on Saturday 7th February 2009, 3km south-east of the Churchill fire station, from two separate ignitions respectively one at the intersection of Glendonald Road and the other at Jelleffs Outlet. The recorded ‘000’ call received from the public, not coincidently, at 13:32, two minutes later.
Like the other bushfires on that day, the climate background was characterised by a decade long El Niño drought, making the native vegetation tinder dry and so extremely flammable. It was a declared Total Fire Ban across Victoria. The Forest Fire Danger index was off the scale recorded at 103 at Latrobe Valley AWS at 4pm, the temperature reached 46.1°C an humidity at just 8% at the Latrobe Valley automatic weather station around 4pm, the humidity just 8%. The maximum winds recorded before the wind change were north-north-westerly
at 44 kilometres an hour at Latrobe Valley Automatic Weather Station at 15:43, before a south-westerly wind change came through.
Before 7th February, the Country Fire Authority and the Department of Sustainability and Environment had already been providing support in response to three separate bushfires which had started on 28th and 29th January and which had coalesced into one and became the Delburn Bushfire. It had been contained by 3rd February. Like the Delburn Bushfire, thge Churchill Bushfire was started on the one day by two separate ignitions by an arsonist. So then was the Churchill Bushfire a copy cat arson episode? Were the two somehow connected? Did both arsonists know each other?
At the time, the cause of the Churchill Bushfire was recorded as ‘suspicious’. It was in fact deliberately lit in two locations, outside the township of Churchill along a roadside next to and upwind of a pine plantation owned by Hancock Plantations Victoria at the foot of Walkers Hill. The tinder dry conditions fanned by a steady breeze meant the ignitions took hold quickly.
The recorded 000 call received from the arsonist himself at 13:32, two minutes later. Actual fire-fighting response was not documented in the Royal Commission report. It could well have been some hours before the blaze was fought. The following photos of the Churchill Fire are purportedly from the nearby township of Morwell looking south. They show the early minutes after the ignitions.
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The very start of Churchill Bushfire
Photo taken looking south from Hunt Street, Morwell
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‘Composition: vertical-panorama of the smoke from the Churchill Fires that have jumped containment lines near me’
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[Source of photos: ‘Nchalada’s Photostream’, Flickr, ^http://www.flickr.com/photos/nchalada/page2/, accessed 20120827, Ed: Due to their controversial nature, the many photos on this Flickr website may not be accessible for long.]
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During the afternoon and early evening the fire travelled rapidly, affecting Jeeralang North, Balook, Le Roy, Koornalla, Callignee, Callignee North, Callignee South, Hazelwood South, Hazelwood North, Traralgon South, Devon, Yarram and Carrajung South. The final statistics confirm that firefighting resources deployed involved 409 CFA, 167 NEO personnel and 33 Hancock Victorian Plantations firefighters, supported by 76 CFA appliances, 29 NEO appliances and 4 waterbombing aircraft.
Although the fire was at its most destructive on 7th February, it was not reported as controlled until 19th February. Eleven people died as a result of the fire, plus an additional 35 casualties, 156 houses were destroyed, and more than 36,000 hectares were burnt.
About 1000 hectares of Bluegum plantations and 1700 hectares of Radiata Pine plantations owned Hancock Victorian Plantations by were burnt in the fires. An untold number of livestock and wildlife were also burned to death. In the nearby Delburn Fire, an arrest has been made but the outcome of that trial is not yet known at the time of publishing this article.
‘Residents of fire ravaged Gippsland towns have been warned to remain alert despite cooler temperatures today. So far 27 homes around Boolarra and Mirboo North have been lost in the fires. (Ed: The Delburn Bushfire)
More than 400 firefighters from as far as Mildura are currently battling the 6300 hectare blaze with 113 fire trucks, 14 helicopters and 12 bulldozers. About 40 Boolarra and Mirboo North residents have spent the past two nights in emergency accommodation at Monash University in Churchill, after fire swept through their town on Friday.
More than 100 residents attended a community meeting in Churchill this morning to discover whether their properties had survived the weekend.
CFA spokeswoman Rachel Allen warned locals the blaze was far from being classified as safe, despite drizzle predicted and a top temperature of only 29 degrees. “Obviously the threat has diminished somewhat because of the cooler temperatures, but it as important now as it was a few days ago to keep yourselves aware,” Ms Allen said.
Peter McHugh from the Department of Sustainability and Environment agreed, saying the fire threat “was far from over,” and that residents need to remain vigilant for flying embers.
Mr McHugh said possible electrical storms predicted to hit the area later today are a cause of concern for emergency services.
The Delburn fires have claimed 27 homes, 59 sheds, 5 cars and a piggery since they began on Wednesday. Another home is also believed to have been lost yesterday, but fire crews have so far been unable to access the property, just outside Mirboo North. Almost 40 homes are still left without power, while water supply has been restored to Boolarra.
Department of Primary Industries staff are now counting livestock losses around the Boolarra area, and the number is believed to be substantial.
Latrobe City CEO Paul Buckley said it would take at least a year to rebuild Mirboo North and Boolarra.
“When the fires hit Toongabbie about three years ago that took six months to rebuild, and this one is much, much worse,” Mr Buckley said.
Boolarra evacuees housed in Monash University student accommodation units have shared their horror stories of the blaze that engulfed their town.
Tania Martin, 35, praised the efforts of her partner Dave Caldwell, 40, for saving both theirs and their neighbours’ house.
Ms Martin and her son Storm, 10, left their Boolarra home late Friday while Mr Caldwell stayed behind to defend the properties.
“I think he is an absolute hero,” Ms Martin said. Mr Caldwell worked for hours pumping water on both houses as flying embers showered all around him from the fire less than 100 metres away. But Mr Caldwell said the real heroes are the firefighters who have been working around the clock.
“Those guys and girls, you should watch them heading over the hill straight for the fire. It’s unbelievable,” Mr Caldwell said. “They are made of the right stuff, they are.”
Val Kingston, 68, and her husband recently moved to Boolarra from Melbourne for a “tree change.” “And now all the trees are gone,” Ms Kingston said.
Ms Kingston said leaving Boolarra lat Friday had been difficult. “It was the saddest sight I have ever seen looking over my shoulder as I drove away. I just thought “there goes my town.”
Ms Kingston praised the efforts of Monash University residential staff. The University purchased fans for the units where evacuees have set up makeshift homes. They have also provided tea and coffee and icy poles for the kids. “We can’t thank them enough,” Ms Kingston said.
A further 20 firefighters from Mildura and 18 firefighters from Ballarat arrived in Churchill this morning to relieve exhausted colleagues who have been stationed on the fire front for the past two days.
The Churchill fire was threatening communities in south Gippsland late on Monday, fire authorities said. The 33,000 hectare blaze was threatening the community of Won Wron just north of Yarram, in south Gippsland at 5.30pm (AEDT) on Monday.
Residents of nearby Carrajung on the east side of Carrajung-Woodside Road were also expected to be impacted directly.
The Country Fire Authority also issued an urgent threat message at 4.15pm (AEDT) to residents near the Thomson Road area, Churchill, who were being directly hit by the fire. A CFA spokesman said the fire threat had increased as freshening winds picked up.
The death toll from the fires, which police believe were deliberately lit, in the area continued to rise. Nineteen people have now been confirmed dead in the region after the Churchill fires devastated the towns of Callignee, Hazelwood, Jeeralang and Koornalla in southwest Gippsland.
Nine people died in Callignee, one person was killed in Upper Callignee, four people died at Hazelwood, one at Jeeralang and four at Koornalla.
The Churchill fires south of the Princes Highway have so far burnt about 33,000 hectares, while the Bunyip Ridge fire, north of the highway, has razed 25,000 hectares.
Containment lines are also being established on the western and eastern flanks of the Bunyip blaze. Residents of Gembrook have also been warned to be vigilant, although the town is not currently under threat.
In the north of the state, fire around Dederang escalated significantly late on Monday afternoon, also threatening the towns of Beechworth and Yackandandah. The fire was spotting ahead of the main fire and ash and embers were threatening communities in Gundowring, Gundowring Upper, Glen Creek, Kergunyah South, Mudgeegonga and Running Creek. Authorities said some fires could take weeks to contain.
At least 750 homes have been destroyed and more than 330,000 hectares burnt out. The latest death toll is 131, which surpasses the toll from the 1983 Ash Wednesday bushfires, in which 75 people died in Victoria and South Australia, and the Black Friday bushfires of 1939, which killed 71.’
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Misfit Profile of a Bush Arsonist
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Brendan James Sokaluk, was in April 2012 found guilty of all 10 counts of arson causing death by the Victorian Supreme Court in Melbourne for deliberately lighting the Churchill Bushfire on 7th February, 2009. Sokaluk was an ex-volunteer firefighter with a local brigade of the Victorian Country Fire Authority (CFA) from 1987 to 1988, some twenty years prior.
Brendan SokalukNot the smartest bush arsonist, but then could he be?
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Sokaluk, then aged 39, claimed that his old sky blue Holden HJ sedan had apparently broken down on the road near where the fire started, next to a pine plantation where the Churchill Black Saturday fire had begun just minutes earlier.
He was the only outsider on the road. To the residents of Glendonald Road busily packing up their possessions and preparing to flee the raging fire, Brendan Sokaluk stood out. Dressed in shorts and sandals, he was frantically trying to restart his broken-down Holden, which was partially blocking the gravel road.
Once home, Sokaluk climbed on to the roof of his house so he could look back towards Glendonald Road and watch the fire burn.
Sokaluk told several lies to cover his tracks. He told one person he was on his way to a wedding, while to others he said he was visiting a friend in the area. As he was driven back to Churchill by a resident, Sokaluk was overheard telling his father on the phone that he had been in the area to visit a friend to get his chisel set back.
Days later Sokaluk was arrested on the following Friday 12th February on a local street while working delivering the local Latrobe Valley Express newspaper. Sokaluk was interviewed by police for about three hours both at the scene of the fire and in an interview room at a local police station. Police interviewed him and on the following day, Saturday 13th February, they returned him to Glendonald Road and to nearby Jelleff’s Outlet, where the fire had started and where the landscape was now blackened and burnt out.
What emerged was that on the morning of 7th February, Sokaluk had picked up his father Kazimir in his distinctive sky blue Holden HJ and the pair drove to Morwell and Traralgon, visited auto and hardware stores, had lunch at KFC and bought lottery tickets. Kazimir Sokaluk said Brendan’s car was playing up and “running rough” but against his advice his son said he was “going up into the trees” because it was cooler there. Sokaluk also said he wanted to get a chisel set back from a friend named Dave who lived in that area. Another excuse was to access his apparent junk metal collection along Glendonald Road.
The police attempted a re-enactment and the field interview was recorded by video. Sokaluk admitted to police that he had started the blaze, but declared it had been an accident after he dropped cigarette ash out of his car window. He explained that the previous Saturday he had been driving slow, dawdling along in his car. “Looking for animals and stuff,” he said. Asked if he is familiar with the area, he replies: “It’s different `cause it’s not green no more. It’s all burnt out.” The detective asks “How do you know this area?” Sokaluk replied it was where he threw his piece of paper out the window.
“Part of my cigarette thing fell on the floor, so I got a bit of paper out to grab it and stuff… I thought it was dead and I’ve chucked it out the window, but I didn’t know it had lit up. I thought it was out when I threw the paper out the window.” Sokaluk told them. “I had no intention of this all to happen. Now I have to put up [with it] for the rest of my life and it makes me sad.”
The cigarette ash explanation was pivotal in what was a largely circumstantial case. But Sokaluk strenuously denied deliberately starting the fire. But then Sokaluk had told several lies to cover his tracks. He was a serial liar. Yet, without witnesses, evidence, a confession, proving bush arson is inherently difficult.
Prosecutor Ray Elston Senior Counsel argued that Sokaluk deliberately drove to bushland and started a fire on a day that had temperatures that reached nearly 45C. He was calculating enough to lie about his reasons for being in the area, to try to cover his tracks and to point the finger at others. Sokaluk tried to disguise his crime by claiming to police that it was an accident, lying about his reasons for being in the area and trying to point the finger at others, including making a false anonymous report to Crime Stoppers from his home computer blaming a Department of Sustainability and Environment worker for the fire.
Police managed to piece together Sokaluk’s movements on Black Saturday almost to the minute from phone records, witness accounts, shop receipts and CCTV footage. At 1.16 pm Sokaluk was in the IGA store in Churchill where he bought cigarettes before heading off into the Jeeralang Hills. Within 15 minutes a fire erupted in the hills and witnesses said that in tinder dry conditions the inferno tore through the bush seawards towards Yarram.
The Crown called 80 witnesses and its case was a mosaic of evidence that pointed to the guilt of Sokaluk. Mr Elston told the jury the accused had no reason to be in the area that day and if he was going to see Dave, who was home, he never got there.
“Why did he travel on a dirt road to get out there?” Mr Elston said to the jury in his summing up. “Why did he drive off that dirt road on to a graded track on the south side of Glendonald Road? A short distance from where the fire started Sokaluk’s car broke down and he was spotted at the side of the road by a Churchill CFA truck and then later picked up by a couple who drove him back to town.
Mr Elston told the jury:
”When the accused man arrives at that intersection there is no fire. ‘No one else is suggested to be present. When he leaves it’s ablaze. All causes save for deliberate ignition of this fire have been eliminated. ‘There is only therefore one irresistible conclusion to draw from the totality of the material, with respect, we suggest, and that is the accused man set those fires at two points.”
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Neighbours saw Sokaluk on his roof watching the progress of the fire and for some never explained reason he later walked back into the fire area. A resident found him in his back yard and told him to shelter in his house a few minutes before the returning fire storm passed. The jury saw a pathetic picture of Sokaluk with a garden hose in his hand taken by the resident.
It was not until after he was charged with 10 counts of arson causing death that experts diagnosed him with autism spectrum disorder. Until then his family had believed his disability was result of a difficult birth. People in the Churchill area thought Sokaluk was a weirdo and called him” beanie boy” and other names and as soon as locals learned he was in the area where the bushfire erupted he became the prime suspect.
Sokaluk’s barrister Jane Dixon SC during the trial painted a picture of a harmless individual, a “simpleton” whose autism set him apart from others in the community – a “lights out and no-one home” type of personality. “He’s a bit of a misfit really, but nevertheless he muddled along in his own way, muddled along OK with a bit of help from his mum and dad, comfortable enough with his own company, his dog, his hobbies, his obsessions.”
After leaving school, where he had been bullied, Sokaluk worked in a series of jobs before becoming a gardener at Monash University. He did that job for nearly 18 years. Sokaluk spent his days watching kids TV and collecting scrap metal with his dog. Neighbours would hear Sokaluk playing Bob the Builder and Thomas the Tank Engine tapes as he worked in his shed, where he liked to tinker with scrap metal and other junk he had found dumped in the area. Sokaluk’s neighbour Patricia Hammond would sometimes talk to him over the back fence. He would talk to his dog as if he was talking to a child, she said during the trial.
Justice Paul Coghlan of the Victorian Supreme Court sentenced Sokaluk stated in his summing up: “The event was terrifying for all involved in the fires, whether directly or otherwise,” he said. “For the victims, these were and are life-changing events and no sentence that I impose can compensate for their loss.”
Yet Justice Paul Coghlan of the Victorian Supreme Court sentenced Sokaluk to a non-parole custodial sentence of just 14 years. That is one and half years for each human death, excluding the millions of dollars in property damage and the horrific cruel burning to death of all people and animals, the other irreversible damage and tragedy – 156 homes with their personal possessions and memories, the livestock, 36,000 hectares of land, all the agricultural equipment and infrastructure, the forgotten wildlife.
Sokaluk is one of Australia’s worst mass killers as Justice Coghlan concluded. Sokaluk should never be released. Yet his lawyers have already said they are likely to appeal. So who are the real villians? Sokaluk’s barrister Jane Dixon, SC, argued her client had autism and was a simple man and a misfit who was incapable of concocting a web of lies or deceit. Cold comfort to the victims. It was early afternoon on an extreme bushfire day. Sokaluk was upwind of and next to a pine plantation. Sokaluk knew what he was doing.
Had he done it before but not been caught?
Why did he leave the CFA?
Had he been dismissed?
In the CFA one is taught how to light fires for prescribed burning. What triggered his arson?
Was it the devastation and attention that the Delburn Bushfire had created? It too was the cause of local arson.
What was the news reporting like at the time?
Did the media sensationalising serve to encourage Sokaluk as a dormant arsonist to copycat?
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As aptly described by the Herald Sun’ Norrie Ross:
“He was a killer who brought death and devastation to his own community and left a vile legacy for LaTrobe Valley that will never be forgotten or erased.”
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Royal Commission’s Findings into Bush Arson
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One of the Royal Commission’s identified research gaps and priorities emanating out of its analysis was the extent of ‘Deliberately Lit Bushfires‘ and the ‘Causes of Fire-setting Behaviour‘. [Source: ‘Final Report – Summary’, July 2010, Vol. 1, p.20, by 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, State Government of Victoria ]
Following from this, the Royal Commission made two specific recommendations to address what it terms ‘Deliberately lit Fires’. Those two recommendations read as follows:
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ROYAL COMMISSION RECOMMENDATION 35
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Victoria Police continue to pursue a coordinated statewide approach to arson prevention and regularly review its approach to ensure that it contains the following elements:
High-level commitment from senior police
A research program aimed at refining arson prevention and detection strategies
Centralised coordination that includes comprehensive training, periodic evaluation of arson prevention strategies and programs, and promotion of best-practice prevention approaches
A requirement that all fire-prone police service areas have arson prevention plans and programs, according to their level of risk.
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ROYAL COMMISSION RECOMMENDATION 36
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The Commonwealth, states and territories continue to pursue the National Action Plan to Reduce Bushfire Arson in Australia, giving priority to producing a nationally consistent framework for data collection and evaluating current and proposed programs in order to identify and share best-practice approaches.
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[Source: ‘Final Report – Summary’, July 2010, Vol. 1, pp.30-31, by 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, State Government of Victoria ]
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Misfits in Fire Fighting
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It is disturbing that Sokaluk’s lawyer went to considerable effort and persuasion to try to have Sokaluk acquitted on mental illness grounds. Despite the adversarial nature of our legal system, the ego and public profile of lawyers should not be encouraged in spite of justice. Why was Sokaluk entitled to be represented by expensive and exclusive Senior Counsel? The bastard was at best entitled to Legal Aid. What was the total cost to Victorian taxpayers for his legal defence case? Why was the cost not made public?
Sokaluk was not just an arsonist. The scale and impact of his crime escalates him to being a pyroterrorist. But in Australia, the law lags reality. The maximum penalty for arson is 25 years custodial sentence, yet bushfire arson carries a maximum penalty of just 14 or 15 years. Sokaluk received just 14 years – the maximum penalty for arsonists are charged with criminal damage by fire or similar offences under the Bushfire Act or a manslaughter charge if someone dies as a result of the fire.
What is the rationale behind that discrepancy? It is archaic colonial legislation that sends a message that the value of Australia’s natural environment matters not. But when the bush burns, sometimes it lead to 173 human lives destroyed, as well as widespread calamity and wildlife extinctions.
Sokaluk’s 14 years custodial sentence translates to just 15 months in prison for each human he killed by fire. His sentence ignores his inflicting 35 human casualties, 156 houses destroyed, and more than 36,000 hectares of native forest and plantation forest burnt. Solaluk’s penalty is a judicial disgrace. The slap on the wrist penalty sends an sick and enticing message to dormant serial arsonists, that no matter how bad the fire you may light, at worst you get just 14 years. Solaluk should rot in prison. Yet legally technically, Sokaluk could have received the maximum penalty under the Victorian Forests Act of 1958 for ‘Lighting – intentionally or negligently and where authority should have been obtained – or maintaining a fire in the open air in a state forest or national park; failing to prevent the spread of a fire; leaving a fire without taking reasonable precautions to prevent it spreading or causing injury’.
The maximum penalty? 2 years
Australia’s arson laws and penalties are obscenely excusing of mass murder by being burned alive, horrific burn injuries, considerable and absolute property loss, large scale livestock loss by being burned alive, widespread wildlife habitat killing by being burned alive, livelong trauma, ruination of families and communities, immense suffering, widespread habitat destruction, and the irreversible destruction of a region in every sence of the meaning.
Yet Australian backward politicians dismissively treat bush arson akin to the playing with matches of a fire bug.
In the United States, ‘pyroterrorism’ is becoming seriously recognised. It is deemed to be the willful destruction of a Nation’s forests, farms and cities, through the use of fire. On 28th March 2005 the US Homeland Security held a press conference and revealed that they now had an anti-pyroterrorist taskforce. On April 1st, George W. Bush announced that “Anyone caught deliberately setting forest fires as an act of pyroterrorism will be dealt with the same way we treat other terrorists. Pyroterrorists are getting smarter and learning how to create bigger, more unstoppable forest fires… or there are copycats who want to do the same thing.
The Australian Institute of Criminology has concluded that half of Australia’s 20,000 to 30,000 vegetation fires each year are deliberately lit, costing the community $1.6 billion per year. So what is the Australian Government doing about this home grown terrorism? Nothing!
Many bushfire arsonist are disturbingly drawn from the very agencies entrusted to fight fires. But where are the statistics and what is being done about it?
How many misfits serve in volunteer fire fighting across Australia? How many have been psychologically tested as suitable? How many are subject to IQ tests before joining? None? How many dormant Sokaluks does Australian rural fire-fighting have in its ranks?
The Australian Government at federal and delegated state level neglectfully relies upon a low-cost volunteer base that is drawn from a goodwilling Australian culture, but which is dangerously under-resourced, underfunded and recipient of propaganda that perpetuates this.
Consequently, Australia’s non urban fire-fighting is so desperate for volunteers that dormant Sokaluks are unscrutinised, undetected and yet with their bushfire fighting training are trained to become the most deadly bush arsonists of all.
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Armageddon aftermath of Sokaluk’s 2009 Churchill Bushfire Arson– he’ll be out in just 14 years
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‘Police in Victoria are refusing to confirm reports that the major suspect in their investigation into the marysville bushfire is a member of the Country Fire Authority. Earlier this month detectives said they were closing in on the arsonist responsible. The Marysville fire claimed more than 30 lives. Fairfax Media has reported that the CFA fire-fighter is now considered the major suspect and has been questioned and released with investigations continuing. The CFA won’t comment except to say it’s working closely with the Phoenix Taskforce investigating the fires.’
‘A CFA volunteer was jailed for 22 months today for starting a series of bushfires that had to be fought by his comrades in the local brigade. Justice Michael Tinney told Damian Lisle, 36, that any of the fires had the potential to cause catastrophic loss of life and property in one of Victoria’s highest bushfire danger areas, the Herald Sun reports.
Lisle drove around Mt Evelyn throwing lit pieces of paper from his car just days after the first anniversary of Black Saturday in which 173 Victorians lost their lives. Judge Tinney said Lisle started fires in dead-end streets near houses and in bushland and he did not hang around to see what happened. “You lit these fires and you left. Thereafter it was in the lap of the gods,” Judge Tinney said in his County Court sentence.
Lisle pleaded guilty to nine charges that on February 17, 2010, he intentionally caused a bushfire, and to counts of attempting to escape from custody and drink driving. Judge Tinney said Lisle had a history of mental and alcohol problems and at the time of his offending he was suspended from the Mt Evelyn CFA and facing the sack from his job as an assistant supermarket manager. After he was caught, Lisle told police he had drunk eight stubbies and added: “I remember being angry. I don’t know what about.”
Each of the arson counts faced by Lisle carries a maximum of 15 years jail. Judge Tinney said members of the Mt Evelyn brigade told the court that his crimes had a significant impact on CFA morale. The judge said the fact that Lisle was a CFA volunteer and had fought bushfires made him more aware of the danger to life and limb and both general and specific deterrence were important factors in sentencing.
During a court appearance at Melbourne Magistrates’ Court Lisle jumped the dock and tried to escape and the judge said two people were injured trying to restrain him. He set a maximum term of three years and 10 months.’
‘A CFA volunteer has been charged over a series of fires north of Melbourne, including one on Christmas Day. A man will appear in court today charged with lighting a series of bushfires north of Melbourne.
Jarred Brewer, 19, of Darraweit Guim, near Wallan, has been charged with five counts of intentionally starting a bushfire and 16 counts of improper use of emergency services.Brewer was arrested yesterday following a joint operation between Seymour detectives and the arson squad that began in May last year. The charges relate to fires in bush at Wallan and at nearby Mount Disappointment.
Mr Brewer faced Broadmeadows Magistrates’ Court briefly yesterday afternoon before he was remanded until today. Police prosecutor Sen-Constable Renee Azzopardi told the court Mr Brewer had been charged over fires at Mt Disappointment on November 12 and Christmas Day and two fires at Wallan on January 15.
Sen-Constable Azzopardi said he is also alleged to have made 16 calls to 000 reporting fires. At the Christmas Day fire a 20L fuel container and matches were allegedly found.At one of the fires at Wallan investigators believe the fire was started using fire starters. Mr Brewer was allegedly captured on CCTV footage at Safeway in Wallan shortly before the fire with a shopping bag. The court was told that store records showed a BBQ gas lighter and a bag of fire starters were purchased at that time.
Sen-Constable Azzopardi said local emergency services believed their resources were deliberately stretched so that Darraweit Guim fire brigade could be turned out to fires. The court heard that Mr Brewer attended a fire station at one point and became abusive to fire fighters when they wouldn’t allow him on a truck. Court documents reveal that Mr Brewer has also been charged with lighting fires at Wallan on October 10 and November 16.’
The following article was written by Andrew Campbell 20090209 and in the days following Victoria’s ‘Black Saturday‘ bushfire disaster(s) of February 2009. It is entitled ‘Thoughts on the Victorian Bushfires‘ and is reproduced with permission below. It contributes a insightful and reflective review as well as offering bushfire management reform initiatives out of this tragedy and ahead of future inevitable wildfire emergencies.
The bulk of this essay was written on 10 February 2009, circulated by email among colleagues and posted on Professor Campbell’s web site. It received a strong positive response, eliciting many useful additional points, some of which are now incorporated in this updated version. The original document may be accessed from Professor Campbell’s website Triple Helix Consulting ^http://www.triplehelix.com.au, specifically donwloaded ^http://www.triplehelix.com.au/documents/AndrewCampbellontheVictorianBushfires_000.pdf
Triple Helix Consulting site offers a range of information resources including publications, presentations and projects. As of February 2011, Andrew Campbell has taken on a new role as Professor and Inaugural Director of the Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods (RIEL) at Charles Darwin University in Darwin, Australia. This website will be maintained as a record of Triple Helix outputs, but Andrew’s more recent writings and talks will be accessible through RIEL.
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The images have been added.
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Approach to Marysville before Black Saturday
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‘Thoughts on the Victorian Bushfires’
by Andrew Campbell
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Countryside north of Marysville before Black Saturday
(Marysville is in the valley amongst the coloured deciduous trees)
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A friend in America asked me for my thoughts about some of the media and web reports circulating about the Victorian fires.
As a Victorian forester with professional training in fire behaviour, fire suppression and fire management, and with experience as a sector boss in fires leading up to and including Ash Wednesday (February 1983), I have maintained an on-going interest in fire management in Australia. As a consultant policy adviser and research manager I’m interested in what our
response says about our collective knowledge base. The way we handle fires for me is one of the key indicators for how well we are learning to live in this ancient continent. The Victorian fires, and in particular some of the media since the fires, suggest that we have a long way to go in improving the ecological literacy of Australians and the body politic.
There has been lots of rabid stuff coming out since 7th February, pushing long-held anti-green agendas. Suggestions that it’s all the greenies’ fault and headlines like “will the real arsonists
please stand up” claiming that conservationists, tree protection policies and green groups’ opposition to hazard reduction burning are to blame for the fires — and by implication, the tragic loss of life and on-going suffering for people and wildlife — have been particularly ghoulish and offensive.
Claims that more broadscale fuel reduction burning in Victoria’s forests would have prevented these fires and the horrendous loss of life are nonsense. The reasons why these fires have been so destructive of life and property are multiple, interacting, complex and systemic – inevitably a recipe for media to simplify and take short-cuts to reach a convenient narrative (even better if it can be polarised into two opposing camps) that ends up being misleading and unhelpful.
Three crucial facts: 47 degrees temp (115 Fahrenheit), 120km/hr winds and relative humidity of 6%. That these conditions followed two weeks of >40 degrees heat wave, that in turn followed an unusually wet November-December and lots of late spring-early summer growth, after a decade of drought, made for an explosive tinderbox and an unprecedented
Fire Danger Index.
7th February 2009 looking east of Melbourne
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Under those conditions, fuel reduction, access tracks etc are much less useful. These fires burnt through areas that had been burnt by wildfire in 2004, and logging coupes that had been clear-felled within recent years. Mountain Ash forests — the tallest flowering plants in the world — have a lifecycle adaptation to fire. They are difficult to ignite (because they are usually wet forests with predominantly smooth bark), but when the conditions are right, they burn ferociously, creating an ash bed suitable for their regenerating seedlings. As ash seedlings are shade-intolerant, they regenerate best after very hot fires that destroy the canopy. In the absence of such fires over their life cycle, they will not persist. When fires are exploding through the canopies of 200+ feet high trees with volatilised oils creating a superheated vapour, the ground layer becomes virtually irrelevant. Witnesses described huge trees literally exploding, and that is an accurate description under these sorts of conditions.
There were few if any lightning strikes on Saturday until the cool change came through in the evening. Along with problems with power lines, arson probably played a role and two people have already been arrested. The authorities were getting saturation airtime on Melbourne radio and TV from Wednesday onwards, telling people to avoid forested areas if at all possible on Saturday. They were saying very clearly that Saturday would be the worst fire conditions ever experienced in Victoria. While these warnings were essential, it is possible that these very warnings motivated arsonists. There has been too little bushfire research on arson, but that which has been done suggests that it is an important factor in large wildfires.
Black Saturday Firestorm
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Australia (especially Victoria) needs a complete rethink of fire preparedness. With a drying, warming climate, these hitherto unprecedented conditions will become more frequent in future. Professor David Karoly of the University of Melbourne has explained that the maximum temperature, relative humidity and drought index (but not wind speed) in Victoria on 7 February were clearly exceptional and can reasonably be linked to climate change. In early 2007, the Climate Institute commissioned the Bushfire CRC, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO to undertake the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the impact of climate change on bushfire weather in Australia. That report concluded that on the current climate change trajectory, very extreme fire weather days may occur around twice as often by 2020 and four to five times as often by 2050 across much of southern and eastern Australia.
Few people have made the connect between fires and water supplies. If we did fuel reduction burns over the areas and on the frequencies advocated by the “it’s all the greenies’ fault” brigade, then water yields from forested catchments would drop, CO2 emissions would increase, species composition of forests would change and some species would disappear. Crucially, we would still have significant risks to life and property, both as a direct result of fuel reduction burns getting away, and because it would not prevent wildfires under the sorts of extreme conditions experienced on 7 February.
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The answers for me lie in these areas:
Dramatically improved fire detection, early warning and first attack capabilities, with real-time use of satellite imagery, many more aircraft already in the air over high-risk areas on high-risk days, and highly trained first attack crews in helicopters distributed around the state (noting that aerial operations are difficult in very windy conditions and first attack possibilities are limited under the catastrophic conditions of 7 February);
More aggressive fuel management immediately around houses and fire survival bunkers for houses/communities in fire prone areas, and changes to planning laws, home lending and insurance policies and practices, and building codes to mandate fire-sensitive design for measures such as window shutters, leafless guttering systems, under-floor venting, gas bottle storage etc;
Dramatically ramped up efforts to identify arsonists (psychological profiling of fire volunteers etc), penalties for arson, and close monitoring of known arsonists on bad days, with increases in the size of arson squads and stronger penalties for arson; and
Much better and mandatory training in fire preparedness for everyone in high-risk areas.
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The ‘leave early, or prepare, stay and fight’ policy remains the right policy. But the bar has been lifted for both options. Leave early means before the high-risk day (which is reasonable now that forecasts are so accurate). Prepare, stay and fight means being trained, equipped and ready with a plan B (the survival bunker) for those rare (but more likely in future) situations (>40C, <20% relative humidity, >80km/hr winds, super-dry fuels) like 7 February where fire behaviour becomes unpredictable and off the scale. If you don’t have such a bunker (see below) and the forecast is for such conditions, as was clear by 4 February, then you should leave very early.
If you have a house in a beautiful bush setting on an elevated site that is difficult to defend, then a valid strategy would be to invest in insurance rather than bunkers, tanks, pumps and so on. Then get into the habit of leaving (and having critical possessions, pets etc organised) before extreme fire weather arrives. You’d then take your chances with the house, knowing that there is still a greater chance of being in a car accident in any one year than having your house burnt down in a bushfire. Even in this scenario though, I’d nevertheless reduce fuel loads in the vicinity of the house as far as possible.
Rob Gell (pers comm), weatherman, communicator and environmentalist, responded to an earlier version of this piece, noting that councils, banks and insurers have much to answer for, and big opportunities to improve their practices:
“They’ve let thousands of lower socioeconomic sector families settle in fire-prone areas where lots are cheaper and the urban planning issues of overlooking and proximity are not on the agenda. The insurance industry and the banks have been accomplices. The banks have required insurance to build but are not concerned when the policies lapse after the first 12 months. More than 50% of houses were uninsured – I have heard 58%! The insurance companies have not insisted on annually checked and approved Fire Plans – let alone provide a premium discount if a plan is approved. There are no premium discounts for fire-proof house design or for sprinkler systems, working pumps etc.”
Turning off the gas supply at the mains on high-risk days would also reduce the risk for residences. Fuel reduction near houses is important. If councils are prepared to approve dwellings being built in high-risk areas, then it follows that they also need to approve the necessary clearing. But for small lots on high risk sites in forested regions, even total clearing may not be sufficient to ensure safety under extreme conditions, so much more consideration needs to be given to the landscape planning and development approval processes in the first place.
Professor Michael Buxton of RMIT notes (pers comm) that:
“anticipatory policies on the use of materials, building design and building location are long overdue. Governments keep avoiding these issues. Fire hazard mapping is proceeding, but government and local responses remain inadequate. Why do we prevent people from building in a flood plain but allow developers to subdivide land on ridges with one access point in areas of high potential fire hazard?”
For existing houses, if people have any intention of staying, it is important to have at least one significant area of cleared land free of flammable material. This is a completely different matter to broadscale fuel reduction over the whole forest estate. In times past, we would have called that cleared safe area a lawn. Now we need to look at other options.
These fires proved that a parked vehicle (preferably a diesel) with the engine running and the air-conditioning on full recirculating could be a suitable survival shelter, provided it was parked on a large enough clear apron away from major fuel loads. But they also reinforced the well-known point that attempting to flee in a car in dense smoke once the fires are well underway is incredibly risky.
For me, much of the media commentary, the so-called informed opinion and the human behaviour on display during and since the fires, underline the point that in many ways we are still behaving more like displaced Poms, than Australians who are adapted to living in this extraordinary continent. Rowan Reid from the University of Melbourne, wondered in The Age why it is that our weather forecasts don’t routinely report the fire danger index (see below) to better educate the community about likely fire behaviour. It’s also critical that people learn that on extreme fire days they must be well clothed, in heavy cotton from ankle to wrist, with a good hat (preferably a hard hat) and something to cover the face. I find that the hard hat with integrated visor that you can buy with your Stihl chainsaw is a good start.
I cannot believe all the TV footage from the fire zones (in these fires and other recent big fires) showing people trying to defend their properties wearing shorts, singlets and thongs.
Fire-resistant footwear is especially important under ember attack in thick smoke. In countries where temperatures often exceed 40C, the natives dress in long loose-fitting robes, usually white, they always have head-dress and they don’t expose acres of flesh directly to the sun — and that’s in daily life, let alone when confronting a fire…
There is a crucial distinction between strategic hazard reduction burning and managing fuel loads in the immediate vicinity of houses and townships; and broadscale fuel reduction burns across the whole forest estate. I think the former is under-done and the latter is overrated. The crucial point that must be underlined is that under very extreme conditions (Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) above 50 — see below), fuel loads are no longer the key driver of fire behaviour, compared with weather (some of which is fire-induced) and topography (especially slope). It is worth remembering that in January 2003, Canberra had a strip 5-10 km wide of flogged-out, drought-stricken paddocks with not a blade of grass on them as a “fire break” to its west, but this did not prevent fires from reaching the pine plantations on its western edge. Once that happened, then of course high fuel loads so close to houses (noting that the plantations were there before the suburbs) led to houses in Duffy, Chapman and Holder being lost.
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“This is a completely different matter to broadscale fuel reduction over the whole forest estate.”
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In particular, the suggestion that having had more fuel reduction burning over larger areas more frequently during the drought of the last decade in Victoria would have prevented
these fires — and by extension that doing even more of it is essential in the hotter, drier climate we are moving into — is not backed up by the best available science. Fuel reduction burning doesn’t bring rain. [Note: Moreover, recent research by Clive McAlpine and colleagues has found a statistically significant correlation between the warming and drying in southern and eastern Australia in recent decades and large-scale broadacre land clearing.]
In the bush itself, there is a case for strategic hazard reduction burns in dry sclerophyll stringybark and box-ironbark forests, woodlands and grasslands. Done properly, strategic hazard reduction burns can reduce fire crowning behaviour and increase the probability of control under most conditions. There is a case for arguing that the 2003 and 2006-7 fires lasted so long because fuel build up over large areas made fire control more difficult. But it does not necessarily follow that the answer is therefore more frequent burning off on a larger scale. We need more and better research to understand the appropriate scale, pattern and frequency that will balance ecological health with (changing) fire protection objectives. Fuel reduction burning on the scale and frequency advocated recently by some advocates (e.g. 10% of whole estate every year) is a blunt instrument likely to lead to perverse outcomes without preventing large fires under catastrophic conditions.
The word ‘strategic’ is important. It is easily abused, for example in proposals to clear great swathes of bush in “strategic firebreaks” that coincidentally align very well with freeway construction programs. For me, ‘strategic’ hazard reduction means consistent with a well thought-through strategy, based on the best available (preferably current) scientific research, with very clear and internally consistent objectives (which balance other public good objectives like water, greenhouse and biodiversity) and performance measures. Much that has been advocated recently fails those tests.
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“There is a compelling case for national leadership in bushfire policy, education, research,knowledge management, monitoring and evaluation, and building the technical capabilities we will need in a much more challenging future for fire management in Australia.”
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Water catchments need to be handled very carefully or water yields will drop even further. Fire researchers are already questioning the increasing tendency to use back-burning as a first option rather than a last option in fire suppression, because it increases the ultimate size of fires and the length of the burning edge. Lives have already been lost during back burns. On balance, keeping more tracks open is justified, provided tracks are well-designed and maintained.
Climate change means that the notion of a ‘cool burn’ is problematic. There have already been coroners’ inquests into the deaths of firefighters undertaking so-called ‘cool burns’. Fuel reduction in wet sclerophyll forests is difficult, because when the forest is dry enough to burn, it means virtually having a planned wildfire. Professor Peter Kanowski of the Australian National University has published a very useful briefing note on fuel reduction burning for the Institute of Foresters, pointing out that, while there is a case for more fuel reduction burning, there are many constraints, and it can’t be implemented in fire-sensitive wet eucalypt forests carrying heavy fuel loads such as the Mountain Ash forests north-east of Melbourne.
It is also a fallacy to suggest that tall wet eucalypt forest in south-eastern Australia used to be burned on a regular basis by Aboriginal people and that with increased frequency and
extent of fuel reduction burning, we would be returning to a more ‘natural’ burning regime. Painstaking research by Ron Hateley of Clunes, in a forthcoming book drawing upon a wide range of primary sources from the diaries of the first settlers and explorers, finds no evidence of so called ‘firestick farming’ by Aboriginal people in Victorian forests. Such burning may have occurred on a modest scale in the open woodlands and grasslands of northern Victoria, but there is no solid primary evidence in either the early diaries, the sedimentary record or the dendrochronological record (tree rings) that Aboriginal people burned the forests of southern and eastern Victoria. Hateley documents solid evidence that historians and others have extrapolated evidence from northern Australia, assuming that Aboriginal burning practices in the northern savannas were also employed in the forests of southeastern Australia. Repeated and reinforced by authors as diverse and notable as Geoffrey Blainey, Tim Flannery and Phil Cheney, this has become an enduring and unhelpful myth. The primary evidence suggests that the tall wet sclerophyll forests and temperate rainforests of south-eastern Australia were characterised by a thick, almost impenetrable understorey, and not subject to regular firing by humans prior to European settlement. Phil Zylstra’s research, based on dendrochronology and charcoal and pollen deposits, suggests that fire frequency in the Australian Alps and the wet sclerophyll forests of south-eastern Australia has substantially increased since European settlement.
Mount Buffalo incinerated
(Photo: Johannes Smit)
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Drying conditions mean that in south-eastern Australia, a ‘cool burn’ in our tall eucalypt forests is now most likely possible in spring, when marsupials and birds are breeding. Under contemporary conditions, fires at this time of year are very difficult to control and often become wildfires with consequent risk to life and property — especially as over recent decades we have approved so many more dwellings in and on the fringes of the bush.
There is a torrent of ignorant opinion from self-appointed experts (mainly from outside Victoria, from people who were not there on Saturday (Germaine Greer being the most extreme example!)) hitting the media at the moment, blaming the greenies, the government and local councils for not doing enough hazard reduction burning. I see a grave risk that the intense and widely shared desire to implement measures “so that this can never happen again” (when of course it can and will), will translate into simplistic, one-dimensional approaches that default to non-strategic fuel reduction burning and increased clearing of native vegetation — with perverse and unintended consequences.
No mainstream conservation organisation in Australia is opposed to well-targeted and managed hazard reduction burning. A drying climate and a very dry decade have narrowed the windows within which it can be done successfully, and many communities and people with respiratory problems complain about the smoke (not to mention the wine industry).
The size of wildfires in Victoria over the last decade means that vast areas have been fuel reduced, and yet the events of 7 February still occurred. Professor David Lindenmayer of the ANU (pers comm) points out that: “I worked out of Marysville for 25 years and every year for the past 5 years the outskirts of the town were fuel reduced.”
Kevin Tolhurst from the University of Melbourne (a current fire researcher gathering current data under contemporary conditions, unlike some retired ‘experts’ trotted out by the media) has said that more fuel reduction in the forests would have made little if any difference under Saturday’s conditions. Prof Ross Bradstock from the University of Wollongong and
the Bushfires CRC, has pointed out that the Fire Danger Index (FDI) was over 150 in Melbourne on February 7. The FDI incorporates temperature, wind speed, humidity and a
measure of fuel dryness. It was developed in the 1960s and calibrated on a scale from zero (no fire danger) to 100 (‘Black Friday’ 1939) for both forests and grasslands. Fuel reduction research has mostly involved small-scale experiments at FDIs between 10 and 20. A forest FDI (FFDI) above 50 indicates that, due to fire crowning and spotting behaviour, weather becomes the dominant indicator of fire behaviour, and it becomes impossible to fight a running forest fire front. When eucalypt forests are crowning, fuel reduction at ground level is academic. Recent research suggests that with a drying warming climate we are now seeing unprecedented FDIs, and need to introduce a new fire danger rating above ‘extreme’ called ‘catastrophic’ to more realistically present the dangers associated with days like 7 February.
Graeme Beasley inspects his property damage in the town of Koornalla near ChurchillPhoto: Wayne Taylor
..’More than 5000 people have been left homeless – some permanently – by Victoria’s devastating bushfires.’
[Source: ‘Relief Centres Swamped’, by Britt Smith, 20090209, ^http://www.theage.com.au/national/relief-centres-swamped-20090209-81c1.html]
Much of the recent criticism of Victorian authorities is unfair, or at best premature. The Victorian authorities have more expertise in these sorts of fires than anyone else. It should be remembered that over 300 new fires started in Victoria on 7 February, and only a dozen were not rounded up, which was a great effort. But those 12 major fires, under unprecedented conditions, caused enormous damage and horrible loss of life. None of the 181 deaths announced up to 10 February were firefighters, which is a huge improvement from Ash Wednesday 1983 and Black Friday 1939. Tragically, one volunteer firefighter from Canberra has since been killed by a falling tree, and several others have been injured by falling limbs in trying to secure control lines. But overall, the marked reduction in firefighter casualties from the firefront itself, compared with previous large-scale fires, is commendable. The Victorian inter-agency coordination processes, their large fire management systems, their aerial detection, airborne infra-red fire-mapping systems, their personnel training, and their community education and communication approaches are already up with the best in the world (especially considering their resource constraints compared with say California). This is entirely appropriate given that Victoria is the most dangerous wildfire region anywhere, in its combination of climate, fuel types and fuel loads, topography and population density.
That is not to suggest that all these things and more could not be much better — as the Royal Commission will no doubt reveal. Professor Rod Keenan, Head of the Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science at the University of Melbourne, has written a perceptive piece arguing that we need to rethink Bushfire Governance at the national level, supporting a stronger national approach to bushfire and land management. I agree with Rod on this, as the intersections between fire management and other national priorities such as climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, water yields and biodiversity conservation are acute.
National Army Response – ‘Operation VIC FIRE ASSIST 2009’
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There is a compelling case for national leadership in bushfire policy, education, research,knowledge management, monitoring and evaluation, and building the technical capabilities
we will need in a much more challenging future for fire management in Australia. We have already made a good start with national coordination of aerial fire-fighting through the National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC) and in collaboration across States and Territories through AFAC. But more could be done, and the Australian Government could be taking a stronger leadership role beyond just providing funds. These fires, against the background of climate change, herald a new era. We now need to achieve a comparable improvement in preparedness, training, equipment and discipline across the wider community, especially in high-risk bushfire zones. This is a mammoth and systemic education, planning, policy, technical and management challenge. It will inevitably mean allocating more resources to these tasks than we have in the past. The public response to these fires in donating hundreds of millions of dollars has been heart-warming. Governments always seem to be able to find funds for rescue packages and disaster response measures after the event. But our record in investing properly in prevention and risk management is modest at best.
Just as the post-mortems of 1939, 1967 and 1983 also led to fundamental re-thinks and systemic improvements (albeit with patchy implementation), so will the Royal Commission into these fires. The whole planning system should be overhauled, way beyond just building codes and vegetation management. Premier Brumby and his cabinet — and I suspect now Kevin Rudd — appear to understand that business as usual will not do. They also seem to understand the link to climate change in making events such as these (and worse) more likely in future. But they have yet to make the logical jump to the urgency of mitigating climate change, which means setting ambitious targets, and retooling the economy from top to bottom to achieve them.
Bushfire Governance is a National Responsibilty
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I’m reminded of the challenge of running whole farm planning courses for farmers in the mid-1980s, looking at how to redesign farm layout and management to get a more synergistic blend of conservation and production. It was difficult to get farmers to imagine an entirely new farm layout — the fences on the ground had become fences in their heads. The most effective technique I found was to say “imagine that your farm has just been burnt out, and all the fences and infrastructure have been destroyed. Would you put them back exactly as they were before?” Invariably, the response was an emphatic ‘no, of course not’. That simple scenario exercise often unlocked their imagination and strategies for how the farm could be redesigned to better ‘fit’ into the landscape, its soil types, hydrology and land forms, rather than be superimposed on to it in a rectilinear fashion dictated by some colonial surveyor 150 years ago.
This analogy applies equally at the level of the world financial system, and at the level of national, state and local governments in Australia. We have had our bushfire, literally and figuratively. The old structures have been flattened. Let’s not put them back as they were. Let’s take the opportunity to redesign, to rewire, to replumb and to replenish our landscapes,
our economies, and our basic systems for food production, energy, transport, water and housing, to fit new climatic, ecological and economic circumstances.
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Gippsland Bushfire of 1898
bushfires are not new to Australia.
“It will get worse before it gets better...Saturday, Sunday are going to be pretty extreme days once again. Temperatures will be at least in the low 40s.”
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~ sound byte by Fairfax Media, Journalist Tim Young using a provocative sound byte from Dr Chris Ryan, Australian Bureau of Metereology at a media conference on Friday 6th February 2009.
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Amongst the tragedies of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires – the catastrophic loss of 173 lives, many more people injured and traumatised, the massive loss of livestock and property, unmeasured fauna killed, and bushfire history repeating itself – was the excited media (and Victorian Premier John Brumby personally) dramatising on State television, newspapers and radio about an impending extreme bushfire risk.
Gippsland was already two weeks into a series of bushfires that were known to have been lit by arsonists – the Bunyip Bushfire and the Delburn Bushfire and these dominated the headlines. The media focus on the bushfires were about ‘scoops’ and sensational journalism. It had grown into a media infatuation. Every new bushfire story attracted headline news. To a dormant arsonist, such messages would have been a red rag to a bull.
Record temperatures publicised with emphasis like never before …on Friday 6th February 2009
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Victoria was in a severe long drought (like the 1983 Ash Wednesday Bushfires) with tinder dry bushland and extreme hot windy and dry weather conditions that the Victorian Country Fire Authority (CFA) had acknowledged as causing the forecast bushfire risk index for the coming weekend to fly off the scale.
Yet while the media and the Premier were effectively scaremongering, the CFA publicly stated that it was prepared for the weekend of 7th and 8th February 2009. This public confidence misleadingly lulled Victorians into a false sense of security and confidence in bushfire management business as usual, and contributed to the tragedy of long horrific day’s journey into night that unfolds.
The following media articles dated the morning of Saturday 7th February 2009 are reproduced here, the first a full double page spread in Fairfax’s ‘The Age’ newspaper on pages 4 and 5:
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‘The sun rises on our ‘worst day in history’
[Source: ‘The sun rises on our ‘worst day in history‘, by Ben Doherty and Erdem Koch, The Age (morning newspaper), 20090207, ^http://www.theage.com.au/national/the-sun-rises-on-our-worst-day-in-history-20090206-7zzf.html]
Grape grower Lou Bennett with some of his crop scorched in the recent hot weather.
He estimates about 30% of his crop has failed, burnt dry by the sun.
(Photo: Glenn Milne)
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Today is likely to be among the hottest on record in Victoria, and the effects of the heatwave are adding up across the state.
The weather bureau tells Lou Bennett it’s 44 degrees (Celsius). But he trusts better his own thermometer, rigged up on the back verandah. It says 52.
It doesn’t really matter anyway, whatever the number, the sun feels oppressively, infernally hot, and he’ll be out in it.
Warnings from the Premier about today’s heatwave being “the worst day in the state’s history” don’t carry much weight with growers around Red Cliffs, near Mildura in Victoria’s north-west corner. There’s been plenty of tough ones already.
“Out on the farm it’s pretty hot, but whatever it is we’re out there in it,” Mr Bennett said. “Sometimes you’re lucky and you’re in the air-conditioned tractor, but most of the time you’re on the shovel or the motorbike.”
Straitened times have forced Mr Bennett to let his farmhands go. “Now I’ve got my kids coming out in 40-degree heat after school to help.”
By Mr Bennett’s count, today will be the 12th straight over 40 degrees at his place. It has sapped the life from his plants. He lost two complete hectares in one scorching morning, as well as about 30 per cent of his crop overall.
“It’s not just me, it’s everybody. It’s my neighbours, my friends. Your family suffers.”
Farmers across Victoria are suffering similarly. Growers in the Goulburn Valley are writing off crops of pears, apricots and apples ruined by sunburn.
In shearing sheds across the state, sheep have been passing out, overcome by the heat and the heavy fleece they’re carrying (a good rouseabout carries a bottle of water in hot weather to revive them).
Today is set to be the worst of the lot. Across the state, blistering temperatures are predicted, up to 46 degrees in the Mallee, while Melbourne will reach 44.
Northerly winds, gusting up to gale force at 100 km/h, will run across the state, with the potential to fan bushfires across tracts of tinder-dry land.
All sorts of records are being broken. Twelve straight days over 40 in the Mallee smashes the previous state record of nine days. By tonight, Melbourne will have gone 34 days without rain, the third worst dry spell on record.
The heat has also pushed the state’s morgue to its capacity. The Victorian coroner took in 50 bodies a day during last week’s heatwave — more than three times the average rate.
State coroner Jennifer Coate said yesterday that her office had to arrange for hospitals and funeral directors to store the bodies of people whose deaths required further investigation.
Imposing a statewide total fire ban for today, the CFA said the whole state was at extreme risk.
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Premier John Brumby (on the Friday prior) warned that conditions were comparable to 1983’s deadly Ash Wednesday.
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“It’s just as bad a day as you can imagine and on top of that the state is just tinder-dry,” he said. “People need to exercise real common sense … If you don’t need to go out, don’t go out, it’s a seriously bad day. If you don’t need to travel, don’t travel. Don’t go on the roads. If you don’t need to use the public transport system, don’t use it. If you can stay at home, stay at home.”
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V/Line has told people not to travel to Gippsland unless they have to, warning that the Bunyip bushfire would likely disturb coach and train travel.
The Premier urged people to look after the elderly, infirm and vulnerable.
“Ring them … it’s going to be a terrible day for anyone who is ill or who is old,” he said.
Yesterday, the Federal Government issued a directive to nursing homes, requiring them to monitor 170,000 residents across the country. Nursing homes in Victoria and South Australia face spot checks and audits of their air-conditioning systems, following complaints.
Water Minister Tim Holding excused Victorians from their water saving for a day, saying people needed, above all else, to keep cool.
Water consumption peaked at 283 litres per person in Melbourne last Friday, when the temperature hit 45. The average for this summer has been 172 litres per person per day.
Power outages, which wreaked havoc across the state last week, are again a real possibility, with power companies urging people to prepare to do without electricity.
The peak of the extreme heat is likely to push the state’s power capabilities to their limit, while the afternoon change could bring winds that will bring down trees across power lines.
Victoria is preparing for the worst. Sport is being cancelled.
Two and four-legged competitors are heading for the shade. Cricket matches are being moved or called off, while the Classic Dog Show, which was to feature 1200 of Victoria’s most pampered and prize-adorned pups, has been cancelled.
Racing at Caulfield, including the Group 1 Orr Stakes, has been put back to Sunday. The only horses racing today will be at the non-TAB picnic meeting at Buchan in East Gippsland.
But punters with an itch to unload can still have a wager.
Online bookmakers are laying bets on just how hot it will be in Melbourne today.
However, no one’s betting against Lou Bennett summoning the courage to brave the heat, regardless of what the mercury tells him.
“You can’t stay inside, mate, you’ve got to get outside and get it done, because no one else is going to do it for you,” he says.
. ‘Town in fury over bush arsonist’
[Source: ‘Town in fury over bush arsonist’, by Chris Johnston, The Age, p.5, 20090207, ^ http://www.theage.com.au/national/town-in-fury-over-bush-arsonist-20090206-7zzj.html]
Most unnerving of all for Boolarra residents, is that whoever lit the fires may well be one of their own.
At the peak of the devastating Boolarra bushfires eight days ago it was, according to a local, like “a war zone without bullets”. Helicopters in the sky, panic in the streets. Sirens and explosions. The burnt-out shells where houses once stood.
The fires are now contained, but today’s extreme hot and windy conditions — tipped to be the worst in the state’s history — will be terrifying in this pretty village in Gippsland’s foothills.
It could all go up again. But they know that. They are ready. The firefighters have been working towards this day all week.
The deeper problem is something that no one really knows how to handle. The fires were deliberately lit and the close-knit community of 600 is seething. There are whispers of revenge and vigilantes, of bush justice. No one can believe anyone would do such a thing.
The talk is about how whoever did this must be a “sick bastard” and how they should be strapped to a tree in the next firefront and left to burn to “see how they like it”. Someone said that if caught, they would need police protection because the town wants blood.
“People and families here are scared and angry,” said Rob Herni, who grows tree ferns and chairs the local community development group. “And I don’t think there’s any reason for them not to be. Lives have been put at risk, homes destroyed, livelihoods gone.Plenty of people would want an hour or two with the culprits, I can tell you. Normally sane people threatening all kinds of things.”
The fires reached a peak last Friday. That was when they were coming on three fronts, the power was out and the drinking water was contaminated.
Thirty houses, 82 sheds, nine cars and a pig farm were destroyed in 6500 hectares around Boolarra, Mirboo North, Darlimurla and Yinnar, all in the Strzelecki Ranges south of Morwell. That no one died either fighting it or caught in it is seen by the community as a miracle.
Police yesterday announced a new taskforce to investigate the fires and said the driver of a dark silver or grey Toyota Hilux single-cab utility could be the firebug after such a vehicle was seen at the ignition points. Two men were questioned last week but released. The Age believes they were apprehended at the Boolarra CFA staging ground last Thursday, but were not CFA members. A $100,000 reward has been posted.
Boolarra CFA captain Todd Birkbeck believes he knows how it played out. His pager went off at 7.30am last Wednesday; a fire had been lit in the forested hills behind the Boolarra goldfish farm. It was put out but lit again later that day. The next day, he said, another was lit near a track off Creamery Road, near Yinnar, and another at Lyrebird Walk, near Mirboo North.
“By last Thursday night the three had joined up,” he said. “That was the problem. There was no lightning. Fires don’t light up on their own.”
His wife, Michelle, said she and most others were anxious, paranoid and on edge. She heard a motorcycle out in the trees one night, when the fires were out, and feared the worst. It was someone checking fences.
“It’s surreal,” she said. “Nervy. Everyone’s jumping at shadows. You could be talking to them, you don’t know. You see a stranger and you wonder. It’s horrible.”
Mr Herni said he was paranoid about having to drive some mower fuel home to Boolarra from Yinnar today. “Does that make me an arsonist?” he asked. “In the eyes of others?”
The most difficult thing for people to understand is that the arsonist may well be one of their own. Forensic psychologist Rebekah Doley, Australia’s only criminal profiler of bushfire arsonists, said most lived within 10 kilometres of the scene.
“They have knowledge of the landscape and they know where to set the fire best to achieve what they want,” she said.
The culprit was likely to be a male loner with a dysfunctional background who lit the fires to exert power over a community in which he felt powerless. “They need to assert themselves in some way and fire is a very universally powerful tool to do that so it’s about the experience of the fire rather than setting the fire itself,” she said.
She said serial arsonists were common and the Boolarra firebug could strike again.
“They have to demonstrate they still have the power even if they know police are on their tail.”
She said a serial arsonist was someone with a “deep-seated, long-term interest in fire” who used it as coping tool to relieve emotional tension.
A recent Australian Institute of Criminology report into bushfires said they cost the country $1.6 billion a year and half — about “20,000 to 30,0000” — were deliberately lit.
All this is unthinkable to the people of Boolarra. It has happened to them before — and in the towns nearby like Churchill — but it never makes sense. They live in the trees here, in a village, a hidden valley. Why would someone destroy that, why tear the community apart? With fire, of all things.
“I don’t have any of the answers,” said Rob Herni. “All I know is that people are scared. There’s a lot of fear, real fear. Where are they going to light a fire next? And when?”
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Read Reports by the Australian Institute of Criminology
Editor: Early Afternoon of Saturday 7th February 2009 – the reports start coming in…
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‘Fire crews retreat as strong winds fuel flames’
[Source: ‘Fire crews retreat as strong winds fuel flames’, by Robyn Grace, AAP, 20090207, ^http://www.theage.com.au/national/fire-crews-retreat-as-strong-winds-fuel-flames-20090207-806a.html]
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The Country Fire Authority has issued a number of urgent threat messages as fire activity increases throughout the state.
Ground attack firefighters were earlier forced to retreat from a bushfire burning through the Bunyip State Forest east of Melbourne after the blaze broke containment lines.
Emergency authorities were forced to pull their ground crews out of the fire ground in the Bunyip State Forest, near Pakenham, this morning because of the escalating risk as forecast strong winds began blowing through the area.
Authorities have warned power supplies may be at risk as bushfires near power lines.
Officials also warned people to stay away from the forest area after recreational four-wheel drivers and trail bikers were spotted heading into the state parkland.
“We put road closures in place because unfortunately we’ve had people who’ve tried to go out into the bush early this morning,” incident controller David Nugent said.
“We have got some closures in place in areas like Bunyip State Park. We had people go out there this morning, which is really disappointing to us. It’s not a very good idea to be out in the bush today, particularly around the fire area where we are trying to do our work on the fire.”
More than 100 firefighters are desperately working to contain the fire in Bunyip State Park as it nears a number of small townships.
The fire broke through containment lines about 3am today and crews now fear the worst as the humidity drops and winds reach predicted levels.
Victorians were yesterday told to brace for its worst day in history with 44-degree heat, gale-force winds and tinder-dry conditions fuelling the fire threat.
“Everything is going according to predictions unfortunately,” Department of Sustainability and Environment state duty officer Stuart Ord told Sky News about 8am.
Firefighters worked in shifts overnight to try to contain the fire near Pakenham in Melbourne’s east.
After the blaze broke control lines overnight, DSE crews were forced to retreat because of the escalating risk and difficult terrain.
Mr Nugent said the change in tactics meant only aircraft crews were deployed to waterbomb the 165-hectare blaze in an effort to limit its potential, before weather conditions took a forecast turn for the worse.
The communities of Labertouche, Jindivick West and Tonimbuk are now on high alert as winds push the blaze in a south-easterly direction.
The fire is spotting in multiple areas. The Country Fire Authority said the fire was not currently posing a threat but activity had increased and it had the potential to impact on towns directly.
Residents have been warned to expect increased smoke and embers within the next two hours. They have also been told to be prepared to activate their bushfire survival plans if necessary.
Mr Ord said flames were 10 metres tall in some parts of the fire. Dry lightning in other parts of the state were also a concern, he said.
DSE incident controller David Nugent said fire crews had worked tirelessly in an effort to minimise the anticipated spread of the fire.
“Our bulldozer operators have worked non-stop to build control lines around the fire edge and this effort has been greatly enhanced by the work of firefighting aircraft,” Mr Nugent said.
Firefighting aircraft included the Elvis Erikson aircrane, fixed-wing aircraft dropping retardant on the perimeter of the fire and two medium water-bombing helicopters.
Mr Nugent said the power easements supplying Melbourne and other parts of Victoria remained a key issue.
Melbourne Water has released extra water into the Taraoo aqueduct to fight the expected fires.
CFA spokesman Paul Little said a forecast change in wind direction later today could mean the fire front grows from one or two kilometres to several kilometres in width, creating more challenges for fire crews trying to contain the blaze and protect assets.
“Right now, we’ve got crews strategically placed around Labertouche and other areas ready to respond,” Mr Little said. “But what happens later … we’ll have to wait and see. If the wind changes direction, we’ll have a small firefront grow into a massive firefront and that won’t be good.’‘
The rest of south-east Australia is also gearing up for a horror weekend of extreme heat and bushfires.
In Adelaide, the temperature is expected to peak at 41 on Saturday with the mercury in some South Australian country areas tipped to go even higher.
Tomorrow, temperatures are likely to top 47 degrees in parts of NSW.
The CFA advises:
Tourists are advised to avoid the following areas: Bunyip State Park, Kurth Kiln Regional Park, Tarago Forest and surrounding areas.
Road closures currently in place: Intersection of Beenak Road and Launching Place Road, intersection of Princes Freeway and Tynong North Road, intersection of Princes Freeway and Bunyip Road, and intersection of Forest Road and Labertouche North Road.
Emergency relief centres are located at: Warragul Leisure Centre.
For information on fires in Victoria and general fire safety advice, contact the Victorian Bushfire Information Line on 1800 240 667. Callers who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech/communication impairment may call textphone/ telewriter on 1800 122 969. Information is also available at www.dse.vic.gov.au/fires.’.
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‘Death toll may reach more than 40: police’
[Source: ‘Death toll may reach more than 40: police’, 20090207, AAP, ^http://www.theage.com.au/national/death-toll-may-reach-more-than-40-police-20090207-80ao.html]
“Email your photos to scoop@theage.com.au”
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Fourteen people have been killed in the savage bushfires which set Victoria ablaze today. Victoria police confirmed the deaths tonight and said they fear the figure may be more than 40.
At least 100 homes have been destroyed as nine major blazes burnt out of control across Victoria in the worst fire conditions in the state’s history.
Deputy police commissioner Kieran Walshe said all the deaths were in a massive blaze northwest of Melbourne – six at Kinglake, four at nearby Wandong, three at Strathewen and one in Clonbinane.
Mr Walshe said he believed the Kinglake victims were all in the same car. He believed arsonists were responsible for some of the nine major fires ripping across the state.
“We suspect a number of the fires have been deliberately lit,” Mr Walshe told reporters. “This is an absolute tragedy for the state and we believe the figure may even get worse,” Mr Walshe said. “We base that on the fact we’re only just getting into these areas now … to search buildings and properties these have been very very significant fires … the figure could get into the 40s.’‘
The fire started in East Kilmore, 80km north of Melbourne, and covered a huge area as it pushed 30km east to Kinglake, through the small townships of Wandong, Strathewen and Clonbinane.
Mr Walshe said he could not determine whether the victims were civilians or firefighters. He said identifications could not be carried out until at least Sunday. One man, aged in his 40s, is in critical condition after suffering burns to 50 per cent of his body when he tried to move stock in the Coleraine area in the state’s west.
More than 3,000 firefighters and many more residents battled major fronts at Horsham, Coleraine, Weerite, Kilmore East, Bunyip, Churchill, Dargo, Murrindindi and Redesdale in all corners of the scorched state as the searing heat in the mid 40s and high winds exceeded authorities’ predictions of the worst fire conditions in the state’s history.
The Kilmore region in the north and several areas of Gippsland in the east were on high alert as an uneasy dusk fell on Saturday night, while the Horsham fire was downgraded early in the evening.
Fifty houses were reportedly lost in the Bendigo area in the Redesdale blaze and up to 30 houses went up in the Kilmore fire which pushed across Whittlesea and into the town of Kinglake, northwest of Melbourne, which one resident said had gone up in flames.
“The whole township is pretty much on fire,” Peter Mitchell told ABC Radio.
“There was was no time to do anything … it came through in minutes. There’ll be a massive loss of houses … There’ll be a lot of us homeless. All those who have made it into town will be fine. The others will be sheltering and working on their fire plans, God help them.”
Mr Mitchell said he was with around 200 residents holed up in the local pub and that no fire trucks could get into the town.
Thousands more residents in the region were sheltering wherever they could find cover as they were warned the worst was to come overnight.
A cool change early this evening did not bring any respite but, in fact, was expected to create more volatile conditions.
“It hasn’t helped the firefighters, only presented them with new fronts,” the Country Fire Authority (CFA) spokeswoman said.
The CFA and DSE (Department of Sustainability and Environment) warned Victorians to prepare to be hit by fire late tonight and to be especially prepared for ember attack.
“You should assume that as the wind change comes through, that your property could be impacted,” CFA State Coordinator Geoff Conway said.
La Trobe Valley power stations were under threat as a fire on the eastern fringes of the Strzelecki Ranges spread toward the Gippsland coast, threatening towns such as Yarram, Langsbrough and Manns Beach.
“It is pretty well every part of the state except the far northwest,” CFA Deputy Chief Fire Officer John Haynes said.
The Horsham fire burnt 5700 hectares and claimed at least three homes, the town’s golf club and several sheds.
The Bunyip State Park reached 2400 hectares, and one at Kilmore burned 2000 hectares.
CFA deputy chief fire officer John Haynes said it would be about midnight, after the cool change had swept across the state, before fire fighters knew whether they had got on top of the blazes.
Melbourne: a wealthy growing city, neglecting Regional Victoria
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“Our guys have been flat out trying to fight the fires and trying to pin them down a bit,” Mr Haynes said.
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“The fire weather … was extreme and off the scale.”
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By 6pm, at least one house was destroyed at Coleraine in Victoria’s west, in Melbourne’s southeast three homes were destroyed at Lyndbrook; and north of Melbourne six houses were destroyed at Wandong and one at Whittlesea. Homes were also lost in Labertouche, near the Bunyip State Park east of Melbourne.
“There will be more to come,” Mr Haynes said. Julie Venrooy said from Shady Creek, east of Melbourne, said she had been forced to stay on the Princes Highway south of Tonimbuk by police, unable to return to her home. “I’ve been able to contact my husband once. He’s had ember attack, that was about an hour ago but I don’t know what’s happened since,” Ms Venrooy said.
Victoria Premier John Brumby said one fire threatening his parents’ home in Coleraine was stopped literally on their doorstep.
“I would like to thank DSE, CFA and SES (State Emergency Services) fire fighters and volunteers who have fought tirelessly throughout the day to protect Victorian people and property,” Mr Brumby said.
The fires came as Melbourne reached its hottest ever temperature of 46.4 degrees (Celsius), while nearby Avalon recorded the state’s high of 47.9 (Celsius).
Remembering Marysville and indeed, Regional Victoria
This article was initially published on CanDoBetter.net 20090717 by Tigerquoll under the title ‘Victorian Bushfires – cost effectiveness of aerial fire-fighting [Bushfire CRC Ltd]’
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In April 2009, Australia’s leading bushfire research organisation, Bushfire CRC Ltd, published another important report ‘THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF AERIAL FIRE-FIGHTING IN AUSTRALIA‘ by Gaminda Ganewatta & John Handmer, via the Centre for Risk and Community Safety, RMIT University in Melbourne.
The report has examined the cost effectiveness of aerial fire suppression in Australia and has made the following important and most relevant findings, which cannot be ignored by fire authorities and their politically disposed masters:
The use of ground resources with initial aerial support is the most economically efficient approach to fire suppression!
Aircraft are economically efficient where they are able to reach and knock down a fire well before the ground crew arrives!
Rapid deployment of aerial suppression resources is important, especially in remote or otherwise inaccessible terrain!
The sole use of aircraft is economically justified in the event of other suppression methods being unable to reach the fire event quickly!
Critical factors are speed of deployment and turnaround time!
Aircraft save more damage than they cost to operate, noting that high volume helicopters and fixed wing aircraft are economically more efficient in fire suppression, compared to small helicopters and large air tankers. Air tankers are less maneuverable compared to helicopters, thus their use in initial attack is not practical, unless used solely for large events!
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So while Brumby’s Royal Commission ( Victorian Bushfires 2009) is working towards finalising its investigation into the Victorian Bushfires, this presents an opportunity for Fire Management to harness such relevant bushfire research.
Before next bushfire risk season key relevant bushfire research like this can be evaluated and the costs, budgets and business cases formulated to propose application to fire management operations.
But frankly can one lead a politicised brumby to water?
The following references provide useful illustrations and real life accounts of practical aerial fire fighting resource options out there (print them off and have a darn good read):
‘Helicopters: Stopping the Blazes‘ by Amanda N. Gustafson (2008) [Read publication]
[This article was initially published by Tigerquoll on CanDoBetter.net 20090626, in the aftermath of the Victorian Bushfires which conflagrated on 20090207]
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The Australian Press Council has just dismissed a complaint against Sydney Morning Herald columnist Miranda Devine about her ‘opinion’ article back on 12-Feb-09 ‘Green ideas must take blame for deaths.’
But although provocative, Devine’s ‘opinion‘ article pales in comparison to the social implications of headline media reporting of extreme bushfire risk immediately BEFORE the bushfires! [‘Complaint against Devine dismissed’, SMH, 26-Jun-09, p.5]
Note that the date of the article was made while fires still raged. Also, note that the article was published on the front page of the Herald, indicating that the editor was unusually highly supportive of it. Normally, the Herald’s ‘Opinion and Letter’s‘ articles are printed way back around page 12.
The main inflammatory bits drawing criticism in Devine’s article were:
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“It wasn’t climate change which killed as many as 300 people in Victoria last weekend…it was the power of green ideology over government to oppose attempts to reduce fuel hazards before a megafire erupts.” [and] “If politicians are intent on whipping up a lynch mob to divert attention from their own culpability, it is not arsonists who should be hanging from lamp-posts but greenies.”
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Clearly, the article’s emotive tone expresses anger, frustration, retaliation and spiteful provocation. Perhaps this is understandable given the scale of the disaster and public shock, disbelief and for many, the personal loss. People react in their own way to tragedy. Devine’s article upset many and presumably it was intended to in order to unseat entrenched community complacency about Australia’s bushfire management generally.
If so I agree with her motive, but not her method.
The Australian Press Council considered the article’s lead paragraphs as ‘dogmatic’ and ‘confrontational’. But the complainants asserted that the article breached a number of Press Council principles. Yet the Press Council’s principles or journalism are vague and advocate the rights of journalists rather than prescribing responsibilities. The principles include noble motherhood ideals such as being accurate, fair and balanced, not being misleading, acting in the public interest and not being biased against minority groups. So then perhaps the complainants were misguided and it is not surprising that the Press Council found that publicising the article didn’t breach any of these principles.
Devine was accused of incitement in her article, which is a fair interpretation.
On Crikey, Greg Barns questions whether Devine’s article incited violence. He suggests that in “these fraught times, where there is a smell of blood in the air as well as smoke, as communities, individuals and the media look to find someone to blame for the Victorian bushfires, are just the environment where incitement flourishes.” Barns goes on: “To date no one appears to have acted on the inflammatory statements of Ms Devine and her fellow sabre rattlers, but that does not matter, says the law. It is enough that the incitement to commit a offence occurs, it is irrelevant that no one acted on the statement made.”
In the press at the time, local anger in Gippsland was palpable and vigilante feeling clearly was at breaking point. But it was targeted at the arsonists.
No-one rationally can blame the conservation movement and its ecological principles for the Victorian Bushfires. The bush and its creatures were innocent victims of the fires, just like people, livestock and houses. Many tend to forget this in the wake of such enormous tragedy. But one must blame the arsonists.
Yet it wasn’t apparently just arsonists that caused the ignitions and it is the task of Brumby’s Royal Commission to investigate and find out the causes of all the ignitions. However, thereafter, the real problem solving should start, but I doubt Brumby will have the will and instead will want to close the political door on the bushfire tragedy – just like the bushfire investigations of the past and interstate.
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But let’s turn more importantly to the media incitement before the bushfires!
The Age newspaper in Melbourne during the Victorian heatwave through January and early February 2009 immediately preceding the bushfires, ran headlines repeating the extreme bushfire risk. On 6 February 2009, the day before the fires started, indeed the Premier of Victoria John Brumby issued a warning about the extreme weather conditions expected on 7 February:
“It’s just as bad a day as you can imagine and on top of that the state is just tinder-dry.
People need to exercise real common sense tomorrow”.
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Was this wise?
To serial dormant bush arsonists and to would be arsonists, this frenzied media excitement about such pending doom surely would have been been read by arsonists and I suggest directly incited the bush arson. Yet at the time there was no complaining or realisation of this.
If bush arsonists are found to have been the key causes of the ignitons and indeed of the most catestrophic firestorms that burt alive people for instance Marysville and Kinglake, then the investigation must focus on the root cause of the arsonist motivations. I argue that media arousal through its sensationalising of the bushfire risk and its portrayal of the bushfire threat is directly responsible and accountable for actual bush arson. Let’s see what the Royal Commission concludes.
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Compare the Media Restrictions on Reporting of Suicide
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Getting back to the subject of press responsibility, let’s look at where the Press Council actually prescribes reporting restrictions on journalists.
Take the subject of media reporting of suicide.
In the Council’s General Press Release No. 246 (i) (July 2001) on Reporting of Suicide, The Press Council:
“calls upon the press to continue to exercise care and responsibility in reporting matters of suicide consistent with government attempts to curb the suicide rate. Research shows that an association exists between media portrayal of suicide and actual suicide, and that in some cases the link is causal. So the Press Council recommends journalists avoid reporting which might encourage copy-cat suicides and which unnecessary references details of or the place of a suicide, or which uses language which trivialises, romanticises, or glorifies suicide.”
So on the sensitive topic of suicide, the Press Council is quite prescriptive, moreso than in its broader principles for journalists rights.
Serious thought needs to be given by all levels of government and by the Press Council as the media industry’s representative body to the reporting of bushfire risks. Just as links can be drawn between the media portrayal of suicide and actual suicide, causal links can be drawn between the media portrayal of bushfire risk and bush arson arousal.
This is a matter for criminal psychology. Media sensationalising of bushfire risk and of bush arson is known to incite bush arson and copy-cat bush arson. This is a little known and neglected form of social deviant behaviour, yet it has become increasingly prevalent and deadly.
There is an urgent need for national level investment into bush arson criminology research and investigations. Media rights and responsibility for reporting bushfires play a critical role, perhaps more than many of us realise.
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Editor’s submission to ABC Four Corners ahead of its programme ‘Two Days in Hell’ aired 20090216
Thank you for highlighting this perennial problem.
The Australian Institute of Criminology reported last month that half of Australian bushfires are deliberately lit. Bushfire research needs to go further to evaluate whether in fact of the most damaging most are deliberately lit.
Test: If one excluded arson ignitions and their related spotover fires (between 29 Jan at Delburn to 8 Feb) would the firestorms have occurred? Assuming the answer is no, then clearly arson must be Australia’s key focus in combating the impacts of bushfire. Unlike the other two causes of bushfire, (lightning and accident) which are random, bush arson targets the worst conditions, upwind of a specific target and often involving multiple ignitions.
The term ‘fire bug’ is too docile and to start seriously dealing with it, we must change the perception and the language. Bush arson has become so deadly and catastrophic a crime that it warrants the term ‘pyroterrorism’. See the application of this term in the recent California fires. [^http://www.lilith-ezine.com/articles/thepyroterroristsarecoming.html]
The forthcoming Royal Commission into the Victorian Bushfires of 2009 risks concluding similar theme recommendations as the 2004 COAG Enquiry into the 2003 Canberra Firestorm, which itself repeated those of many previous bushfire enquiries. The implementation of any recommendations requires budget, timeframe and an independent federal watchdog accountable to the public. I will be analysing its terms of reference.
Aside from serious resourcing of bush fire fighting (nationalising it, building approvals, building codes, etc), the key systemic problem is the cultural disconnect between bushfire research and fire fighting practice. Criminal arson investigation needs to be a permanent and dedicated arm of bushfire management, properly resourced with primary data collected from all Australia and overseas using the best criminal psychologists and with a proactive mandate.
In NSW, the government set up Strike Force Tronto to investigate serial bush arsonist after the Christmas 2001 bushfires. Then the government got complacent, other priorities emerged and it was disbanded in 2005.
But following a series of arson bushfires in 2006 (with houses lost in (Picton and Cattai) the force was reinstated on 26 Sep 06 (Daily Telegraph p1). Reactive sporadic resourcing of bush arson investigation clearly isn’t effective.
To seriously address the main cause of deadly bushfires, a national organisation needs to be permanently established and perpetually funded to focus on criminal investigation into bush arson/pyroterrorism with a mandate to recommend deterrent policies and practices across Australian bushfire fighting as well as the media.
Media reporting leading up to the 7-Feb-09 firestorms, simply incited dormant serial arsonists. Go back and read The Age and television media in the days before and after 29 Jan when the first bush arsonist struck at Delburn (south wast of Churchill). The front page of The Age on Saturday 7-Feb-09 read: ’44 degree heat “as bad a day as you can imagine”
– which was a quote from of all people the Victorian Premier made to the general public the day prior.
Just like the media policy of not reporting suicides due it being known to encourage copy cats, so too media reporting of heatwaves and of extreme bushfire conditions needs to be tempered to avoid inciting dormant serial arsonists.
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‘The Fire Starters’ – ABC TV Four Corners programme of 2003 about bush arson in NSW, following a spate of bush arson
[Source: “The Fire Starters”, ABC TV Four Corners programme, 20030224, ^http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2003/20030224_fire_starters/default.htm]
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‘It’s a summer ritual: fire fighters across Australia battling hundreds of bushfires, putting themselves at risk to save other people’s lives and property. But these men and women are confronting dangers they should never have to face. While most fires, like the recent Canberra inferno, are ignited by lightning strikes or by stray sparks, investigators say a growing proportion of fires are being deliberately lit – by serial arsonists playing havoc in the bush.
As Australia tallies the cost of one of its worst bushfire seasons, Four Corners looks at the devastation that firebugs wreak on the landscape and the fear they generate in vulnerable communities. Reporter Stephen McDonell focuses on two communities where a firebug has been at work. In one case the arsonist has been caught and jailed; in the other the offender remains at large, apparently still living among anxious neighbours who suspect his every move.
McDonell builds a profile of offenders who typically crave power and status. For all their fundamental inadequacies, arsonists often presents normally enough to other people – even to their fellow volunteers in the local fire service. Authorities are fighting a difficult battle against these elusive, superficially unremarkable people, whose crimes rely on secrecy, solitude and destruction of evidence.’
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Interview by ABC journalis Stephen McDonell with NSW Police Assistant Commissioner John Laycock (edited transcript):
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STEPHEN MCDONELL: It’s been suggested by some people there should be a full time arson squad in NSW, do you think that we’re getting to the stage where that’s what we need?
ASSISTANT COMMISSIONER JOHN LAYCOCK: Well there is at the moment. With the establishment of Strike Force Tronto last year, that will be ongoing on a needs basis and we saw very quickly in October this year how quickly that Task Force got up and running.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: You don’t think though there’s a need for developing some expertise in the area, have a team specifically designed just to look at arson?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Well, we have that now with Strike Force Tronto and in addition to the permanent team, we’re also training up investigators right across the state to look at the fire investigations across the board so we’re fairly well on top of that now.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Can you just tell us the thinking that’s led to you having a team that is assembled as the need arises rather than having a full time squad?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Look Strike Force Tronto is virtually full time on a needs basis. We started off in 2001 with the large volume of fires in the state. It took a little time to get that up and running but that expertise and the database and the skill they’ve learnt from that has now flowed to, very quickly, starting up (Strike Force) Tronto II. So, whilst ever the actual need is there, the strike force will be there to assist. In addition to that, you’d normally find that between bushfires or wild fires there’s a three or four year gap. We have 94, 97, then 2001, on this occasion we’ve had two years in a row so the need this year is unusual to say the least.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: If you were asked if bushfire arson is getting worse, what would you say to that?
JOHN LAYCOCK: No I don’t think so. I think the reporting of it has improved. All our local area commands now are on the scene as soon as it occurs, they’re investigating the fires straight away. In the past that might not have always been the case. With Strike Force Tronto up and running, all fires are investigated and eliminated: whether it’s accidental or lightning or what have you and others are put aside for further investigation.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: So you don’t think we’re getting more bushfire arson?
JOHN LAYCOCK: I think the community’s become more up to date and aware of arsonists being involved. The majority of our people apprehended are done by information from the public and, in a lot of cases, actually apprehended by people from the community and people are just sick and tired of people being involved lighting fires so they’re doing something about it which is great.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: So, in other words, are you saying that while the statistics might bear out something of an increase, it’s really just that more people are being caught?
JOHN LAYCOCK: That’s one interpretation. In addition to that: our scientific skills, our forensic skills – with both the Rural Fire Service and the NSW Fire Brigade, with our own forensic people – have enhanced tremendously. Technology has increased. There’s a lot more out there that we can use, we can tap into, and plus the skill level of our people on all fronts has also increased.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Just on the question of your ability to investigate bushfires, what would you say is the area that has come on the most, that is changing the fastest and is enabling you to catch people?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Look without doubt the technology, our forensics, the scientific people, our research people. We tap into overseas data; we tap into overseas experts. Our own local people here are well down the road to being able to fully investigate a fire, to track it from A to Z, with help from the community. Our crime scene investigation has enhanced tremendously and it’s improving all the time. There’s satellite inventory; there’s aerial photography; there’s video links; there’s a whole raft of things we can tap into now.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: I’ve seen some statistics that show that while the offending appears to be going up, the clear up rate remains static, what would you attribute that to?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Probably wouldn’t agree with that entirely and I think I can play with figures with the best of them. For example, in our 2001 fires, there were 22 people charged straight out with arson. There was another 130, 140 odd processed for various breaches, minor breaches of the Rural Fires Act and other Acts of parliament. None of those persons have re-offended again this year to our knowledge. Now most arsonists I think you’d have to agree are not sort of rocket scientists and one would expect that, if they were continuing to offend, they would be apprehended. That hasn’t occurred. So I don’t think the clear up rate has decreased per se. I think the instance of reporting and investigation activity has increased.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: What do you think that those statistics tell us about the impact that catching people has on their likelihood of them re-offending when it comes to bushfire arson?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Look, again, with the number of people we’ve processed – from those that went to gaol, to those who were fined, cautioned or were conferenced – none of those people have re-offended to our knowledge, which indicates whatever process did take place, whether it be gaol or a caution or bond or what have you, has worked in that case. In addition to that, all persons processed have been, their details have been given to our our local area command so at the first sign of an investigation being required, those people would have their names up as a possible suspect to get looked at so the heat is on if I can use that phrase for those people locally in the first instance.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: We’ve spoken to one person who suggested that part of the problem with catching people when it comes to bushfire arson is that crime scene can be totally destroyed, especially if the fire moves over it a couple of times, would you agree with that?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Probably to the contrary and our forensic capacity with the Rural Fire Service, the Fire Brigade, our own forensic people now has increased to the extent that we can get a lot of information from the crime scene long after the fire has gone.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: So, even if a big fire has moved through an area, there’s still a lot there at the crime scene?
JOHN LAYCOCK: There’s a lot of signs, there’s a lot of expertise, and we tap into a lot of stuff still left behind and, as I keep saying, cold fires leave hot trails.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: How sophisticated would you describe the bushfire arsonists as compared to other criminals?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Not very sophisticated: they’re certainly not rocket scientists. Arson is an unusual crime because there’s no financial profit or gain. There’s normally no great planning goes into it: it’s unusual, to say the least. I think that the people involved are possibly not of brilliant intelligence.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Do you think that, across Australia, we’re doing enough to catch bushfire arsonists?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Look we can always do more but here in NSW the community is up and running. The number of reports we get through crime stoppers, continually, for the police to act upon is encouraging to say the least. The number of a people apprehended at fire scenes, lighting fires where people got out of their cars and physically grabbed hold of them where they’re capable of doing it and just hand them over to the police just shows a no nonsense approach. The three organisations working together -with the Rural Fire Service and the Fire Brigade – it’s ongoing, I think we’re doing a lot, we can always do more but, as each year goes on, our expertise increases.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Do you ever worry about discussion in the media relating to bushfire arson: that it might encourage copycat behaviour?
JOHN LAYCOCK: And certainly I think that does occur (but) to what extent…? but we have to weigh up the public interest – the need for the public to know what is happening around them. We’ve found, with the community support, with the open campaigns we’ve been running, they’ve been nothing short of outstanding.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: If we could just look at why one of the cases that your team has dealt with, the Burgess case, can you just tell us, from the outset, what the idea was in terms of when you heard that he was hanging around this brigade in the Blue Mountains, what did you intend to do, especially in relation to that brigade?
JOHN LAYCOCK: We first got some information not long after the fire season started in relation to that offender and I can only speak in general terms. Information is fine but we needed sufficient evidence to place him before a court, it was obvious to us that he was a very firm suspect. We then tapped into the support from the Rural Fire Service. We spoke to the executive and we virtually placed him under surveillance. They did report issues to us. We had our surveillance teams actually follow him from site to site. In the meantime, in the background, our forensic people were linking the crime scenes together and, of course, you’re aware he’s virtually working from one part of the state to the other – from the Central Coast down to Albury and then up to the Blue Mountains, so a fairly wide area – but we were able to link him into all those scenes. Our surveillance people tracked him into places where fire had been lit, just a painstaking good thorough investigation by Strike Force Tronto Police.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Now, for people who don’t know much about crime and the detection of crime, can you explain what this linking of the crime scenes was and how significant that was?
JOHN LAYCOCK: It was quite significant because each offender has their own way of doing things or committing a crime – quite, sort of, peculiar to anybody else – so no arsonists would work alike, as a general statement. So the way in which the fires are lit at all locations were almost identical and that gives us a guide only to the fact that he was the person responsible. But it’s not just the crime scene, it’s sightings, information from other people in the community, people from the Rural Fire Service that felt things weren’t quite right, that was all fed into our system to give us enough to get out and charge him.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: So, is this right, it was something like that there was a pattern to his behaviour, is that right, that he was doing similar sorts of things?
JOHN LAYCOCK: There was a pattern to the way he was committing the offences, which showed very promising signs to us.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: What could you say about Burgess’s behaviour that led you to actually apprehend him?
JOHN LAYCOCK: It wasn’t so much his behaviour, I think it was the investigation results from behind the scenes. Evidence from witnesses, admissible evidence we could place before a court, the linkages between the forensics at the crime scenes and the fact that we were able to place him at those particular sites either before, after or during a particular fire breakout. That’s the cold hard evidence that we need.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: I think you were saying something before about his behaviour being consistent and that, because he didn’t vary it so much, you were able to say right, bang, bang that he did all those, lit all those fires. Can you just tell us a bit about that?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Yeah, look we have to prove each individual fire by itself. We just can’t say that we think it’s him because all the fires appear to have lit the same way. We need admissible evidence to place before a court to put him at the scene and, what happens at the crime scene, there’s only a small part of the jigsaw. So each investigation needs to be complete and be able to stand in its own right but the common factor was the linkage between the crime scenes.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Can you tell us a bit about how Cameron Burgess’s behaviour assisted police in catching him?
JOHN LAYCOCK: I think: in the way that he exposed himself to other members of the fire fighting fraternity; that he was always there at the crime scene, he was in the locations at the time when the fires went up; on occasions he actually went to help fight the fire, it didn’t do him any favours when we started putting the brief together.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: So you could see the same sorts of things coming up again and again?
JOHN LAYCOCK: There was a pattern there but there was also admissible evidence that we could use and place before a court.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: What was found out about Cameron Burgess’s mental state?
JOHN LAYCOCK: According to the psychologist’s report that was tended to the court at the time, he had no mental illness or condition, probably can’t comment too much further than that.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Was there anything significant about this Burgess case?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Look all police investigations are virtually quite different but the one thing that struck out with him was that he was operating in such vast distances away from each other: the Central Coast, Albury, Wagga and the Blue Mountains, entrenching himself in with the local fire fighting sort of type community and committing offences of that nature. It was quite unusual. Most arsonists tend to work fairly close in one area.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Why do you think he was moving from area to area?
JOHN LAYCOCK: I don’t really know, I never could find that out. I think he had contacts in all those locations and he entrenched himself in with the local community.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Have you ever had a problem with other members of the volunteer brigades being arsonists?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Look occasionally with all large organisations you might have one or two, even a handful of people who fall through the cracks and obviously Burgess is one of those but probably no more than any other group from the community. We’ve found offenders from all walks of life so I don’t see that as particularly unusual or significant.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: How important do you think it is for the bushfire brigades to be vigilant in keeping an eye out for arsonists in their midst?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Very important. We work so closely together, we find that most captains of all the outfits, all brigades, do report anything unusual to us through their own chain of command. Obviously, if they’ve got one of their own out lighting fires, it’s a big risk. It does them damage so they are very supportive of the police and, on quite a few occasions, they have been entrusted and vice versa with sensitive details and they don’t breach security so the probability of that sort of continuing can’t be excluded but it’s small on the scale.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: Do you think that the checks are sufficient at the moment: the background checks of people wanting to join volunteer brigades?
JOHN LAYCOCK: Look that’s a question I think for the Rural Fire Commissioner, Mr Koperberg. Whether that would solve all the problems I don’t know. I don’t profess to be an expert. It’s a question of how far you go and what expense and what are the risks involved if you don’t…? There’s the odd one that falls through the crack but whether what you’re going to do is enough to weed them out I don’t know.
STEPHEN MCDONELL: If you could look into your crystal ball – 5, 10 years down the track – paint us a bit of a picture of the likelihood that you’ll be catching more bushfire arsonists.
JOHN LAYCOCK: I think, from what we’ve developed now, is that if you’re going to go out and start lighting fires, the probability of being caught is fairly high. Our forensics, our working with the other agencies, our scientific, our expertise, our skill base, our investigators, the probability of being caught is very high. As the years progress that capacity’s only going to increase and will get better and better. The end result will be that, if you’re going to be an arsonist, you better pack a toothbrush because you’ll be going to gaol.
[Ed: Monday 24th October 2011 was the first hot day for some months in the Blue Mountains and it was a day where winds were forecast to pick up in the afternoon from the west. The bush arsonist must have known this. What were the media reports ahead of this? What language did the media use on Sunday 23rd October to describe the weather forecast?]
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‘Arson may be behind the Mountains’ second major bushfire outbreak in a month that saw hundreds of schoolchildren and residents evacuated, and damaged seven homes.
The blaze broke out shortly before 2pm on Monday, October 24 at Cliff Drive near Echo Point and forced the evacuation of 450 children from Katoomba High School and 25 residents from 12 nearby homes.
Tourists were also warned to stay away from the area and fears were held at the height of the blaze for landmarks including Katoomba’s Scenic Skyway, Lilianfels and Echoes Hotel, with the Skyway’s terminal scorched by the flames.
“During the blaze, seven homes sustained minor damage, and a garden shed was destroyed,” a police statement said.
Local detectives and Strike Force Tronto officers together with Rural Fire Service investigators are looking into the cause of the fire, with initial inquiries suggesting the fire “may have been deliberately lit”, according to a police statement.
Blue Mountains Crime Manager Inspector Mick Bostock told reporters yesterday (Tuesday) while the fire had “two points of origin”, investigators believed it was lit by the one arsonist. He could not say exactly how. Police were interviewing one witness, an overseas tourist living in Bondi, who reported a fire in the area, he said.
Firefighters worked on Monday night to secure the fire edges and by Tuesday morning it had burned out 20 hectares of bushland and was no longer a threat to property. Fire and Rescue NSW sector commander for the incident, Inspector Kernin Lambert, said he was amazed no homes had been lost, with conditions creating “the perfect storm”.
“On this occasion the timely response and some brilliant firefighting from Fire and Rescue NSW and the Rural Fire Service saved the day,” he told the Gazette. “We are told that fire has not burned through that area for 35 years and the high accumulation of bush . . . the angle of the slope, wind direction, the aspect, it was like the perfect storm in terms of potential for fire disaster.
[‘Blue Mountains bushfire: police investigate arson’, Sydney Morning Herald, 20111025, ^http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/blue-mountains-bushfire-police-investigate-arson-20111025-1mgvj.html]
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‘A bushfire in NSW’s Blue Mountains, which was believed to be deliberately lit, is now under control after firefighters back-burned overnight. Police are investigating if arson is to blame for a bushfire that is burning in the Blue Mountains for a second day. The blaze, which started about 2pm yesterday, has scorched 19 hectares at Katoomba, west of Sydney, and forced the evacuation of a high school.Detectives from the Blue Mountains Local Area Command and Strike Force Tronto and the Rural Fire Service will investigate the circumstances of the fire burning between Cliff Drive and Katoomba Street.’
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‘Arson investigators probe Katoomba blaze’
[Source: ‘Arson investigators probe Katoomba blaze’, ABC, 20111025, ^http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-25/arson-investigators-probe-katoomba-blaze/3598740]
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Detectives specialising in arson cases are heading to the Blue Mountains to investigate a bushfire that damaged seven homes at Katoomba yesterday. Police believe the blaze was deliberately lit near Cliff Drive or Katoomba Street about 2:00pm (AEDT). Officers would like to speak with anyone who saw any suspicious behaviour in the vicinity.
This article was initially published by Tigerquoll 20090622 on CanDoBetter.net in the aftermath of the devastating Victorian bushfires that climaxed on 7th February 2009:
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Last ditch huddling together in cars didn’t work(Chum Creek)
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The Victorian Premier Brumby’s Royal Commission into the January-February 2009 bushfires is a mere incident review. If Victoria is to be protected from firestorms in future, it should undertake a root cause analysis, including the numerous past investigations into bushfires, with a view to achieving a cultural shift in rural fire fighting methods, resourcing and emergency management and into ecology management, housing approvals in bushfire prone areas, building design in bushfire prone areas, bush arson criminology and into serious resourcing of rural fire management.
A familiar media icon of Victorian television news for over a decade – he and his family, like those around him, had a right to a safe lifestyle in beautiful rural Victoria
(This editor grew up watching Nine News, as part of our family routine for many years, and I remain still personally affected by his awful tragedy).
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Indeed, given the repeated history of bushfires across Australia and the repeated uncontrolled nature of many of these leading to extensive property damage, the loss of thousands of livestock, widespread ecological destruction, the human lives lost and injuries, and the massive costs incurred every year, the scope of the enquiry should be escalated to a national level.
But the Victorian Commission’s terms of reference focuses on the immediate causes and circumstances of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires. It focuses on the immediate management, response and recovery. This is a start, but the real start occurred in 1939 with the shock of Black Friday. It lead to the Stretton Enquiry, but many large and damaging firestorms have occurred since – so the Stretton Enquiry showed that lessons were either ignored or the application of those lessons were ineffective. The Esplin Inquiry of 2003 identified striking parallels between 1939 and 2002-3 bushfires. Now we have the 2009 Bushfires, but each investigation is disconnected from the previous one, almost as if to intentionally ignore history and any prior lessons learnt. Interstate and overseas, many major bushfires and their subsequent investigations have amassed research, insight and lessons. Why limit the investigation to one event?
Victorian Premier’s complicity in under-preparation, and precious nothing’s been done since
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Incident investigation will uncover causes and flaws and will likely make specific recommendations in the hope of preventing similar incidents. But root cause analysis goes beyond identifying the symptoms of a problem. But the Commission has not started with identifying the problem.
Let’s say that that at the core is the problem of preventing ignitions becoming firestorms.
What are the causes of uncontrolled ignitions in the bush?
Where are they typically lit?
How are ignitions detected by fire authorities?
What is the time lapse between ignition and detection?
What is the time lapse between detection and response and eventual suppression?
Which causes and interventions would mitigate the risk of these ignitions developing into uncontrollable firestorms?
Are the ignition detection tools adequate?
Are the communications tools adequate?
Do we have the right tools and trained personnel in the right places to effectively respond?
Is the entire detection, response and suppression system sufficiently integrated to deal with multiple ignitions in extreme conditions across the State at the same time?
How would this be achieved?
What budget would be required to have such resources and technology in place to achieve this standard?
Is the problem indeed too big for Victoria by itself to adequately deal with and so is the problem in fact a national one?
How would a satisfactory solution be achieved without causing other problems like ecological damage and local wildlife extinctions?
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Then implement the recommendations and scientifically monitor their effectiveness. But the Commission is looking at what caused the specific ignitions, what damage the specific bushfires caused and specific responses. It will conclude what specifically should have been done in these specific incidents. It will lead to a blame game that will solve nothing. Subsequent ignitions if not predicted, detected, responded to and suppressed to prevent firestorms, will likely have different circumstances in different locations.
So how will the problem have been solved by this Royal Commission?
How will the Victorian Royal Commission prevent bushfire history repeating itself?
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What a useless fabricated enquiry, another one in the litany of government rural community betrayal!
This article was initially published by Tigerquoll 20090621 on CanDoBetter.net in the aftermath of the devastating Victorian bushfires that climaxed on 7th February 2009:
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A forgotten victim of bushfire
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The analogy of the Titanic ocean liner disaster of 15th April 1912 is apt in relation to rural communities entrusting those in charge to be able to deal with public/national emergencies. The public trusted the Titanic met government standards. But 2,223 people boarded and 1514 died from the iceberg collision. Government standards were later revealed as substandard.
Public trust in government is appropriate (it’s why we pay our bloody taxes), but government systemically neglects its responsibility and abuses that public trust. Government has the nerve to entice volunteer members of the community to do its dirty work – aka the CFA. So individuals have given up on their government to be able to respond adequately to emergencies (bushfires, floods, droughts, etc) feel compelled to take measures themselves. Building a bunker is a vigilante response. I’m not saying its not a constructive response, but it is a consequential reaction of government failing to protect bushfire-prone communities. It’s like residents losing faith in the police and feeling compelled to being vigilantes. It’s akin to Titanic passengers bringing along their own liferafts.
‘Stay or Go‘?
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To attribute blame on climate change ignores the role of government and in the case of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires lets government get away with manslaughter – literally.
Look into the history of the causes of the Titanic sinking and one can draw many comparisons with the failures of Emergency Management Australia in how it failed to protect life, property and ecological values from the bushfires across Victoria last January and February. The root causes of the (a) 1914 Titanic’s sinking and (b) the loss of 1514 lives were: management culture, poor contingency planning, design flaws, poor governance (e.g. inadequate safety regulations), poor operational response, amongst others.
Victorian CFA Chief during Victoria’s tragic 2009 bushfires
The root causes of (a) the 2009 Victorian Bushfires being allowed to grow into unstoppable infernos and (b) the tragic loss of 127 lives were: management culture, poor contingency planning, design flaws, poor governance (e.g. inadequate safety regulations), poor operational response, amongst others.
The basic question is what emergency strategy was adopted to deal with the Victorian bushfires and why didn’t it work adequately to achieve a best practice outcome – no lives lost, no houses lost, no wildlife killed?
Words from Strathewen.
A root cause of the firestorms being allowed to become firestorms from multiple ignitions is that insufficient dedicated resourcing was provided to deal with the hundreds of ignitions in extreme tinder dry conditions with high winds. The government agencies (CFA, et al) knew the fire index was 300, that this was the worst on record, yet did stuff all to prepare or warn the public. There was a wind change forecast, yet this was not communicated to residents. Relying upon volunteers to drive fire tankers to remote ignitions is proven as ineffective as pissing into a wall of flame.
The 1940’s fire fighting thinking needs to be overhauled – by the time the 000 call is received, the volunteers are called in, drive their fire trucks out to an ignition, two hours later, that ignition has spotted into a fire front and its too late! Happens all the time!
Trapped and no hope
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Another root cause is government allowing people to build in the bush in extreme fire risk locations and in houses that are not bushfire resistant. The tragedy is that after the Royal Commission, the likely response is to incinerate the bush like no tomorrow – destroy the natural environment that people yearn to be near. It will fail to recognise the complexity of the causes and the solutions and will advocate a knee-jerk – troglodyte (‘ugg ugg’) burn the lot approach. The Commission’s verdict will fuel Brumby’s Final Solution to prescribe Victoria back to the Stone Age.
A key question is what is government leadership in fire fighting to do – i.e Emergency Management Australia? How about four fundamental approaches:
Introduce world-leading scientific research and monitoring of bushfire threats – climate and weather conditions, bush conditions, arson investigation, lightning, and integrate these with bushfire fighting.
Obtain state-of-the-art monitoring of bushfire-prone areas across South Eastern Australia to the point where ignitions and plumes in the remotest of locations can be detected within minutes of them starting, feeding this data to a central database and to a standby emergency professional and national response unit.
Employ military-esque emergency services professionals to respond to ignitions within an hour of starting – airborne professionals, not a volunteer ‘dads army’ sitting in trucks.
Resource Australian Firefighting with serious air resources to combat bushfires with military efficiency and scale. A chunk of Rudd’s $26 billion budget on Defence should have gone to setting up a national airborne fire fighting response division and an integrated satellite detection, alert and response system/unit. Isn’t this defence at home?
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Unless the above is done, nothing will change, but now that Titanic has sunk (Victorian Bushfires killed 173 human lives, cost billions in property losses and contributed to many local wildlife extinctions) we no longer should be shocked when it happens all over again.
Kinglake aftermath – homes and lives incinerated
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As for bunkers, no government will guarantee a bunker to protect life ever.
One must attribute responsibility to the top of government, down. I hold Kevin Rudd accountable for the next bushfire tragedy and we are six months before next January.
Brumby, Rudd, Nixon- the ultimate emergency leadership responsible for the Victorian Bushfires outcome of 2009
Ultimate government leadership has ultimate responsibility for public emergency
– the resourcing, the planning, the risk recognition, the mitigation, the response, the compensation.
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In bushfire management, political will continues to be negligent.
This article was initially published by Tigerquoll 20090623 on CanDoBetter.net in the aftermath of the devastating Victorian bushfires that climaxed on 7th February 2009:
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Standby Bombardier 415’s strategically placed during Australian summers – a clear advantage over road-limited fire trucks – but try telling Australia state governments at budget time and they only cry poor.But then state government bushfire response record is littered with recurring tragedy and failure – Victoria, Canberra, Perth Hills, Blue Mountains, Eyre Peninsula…
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We need to dig deeper if we are serious about the bushfire threat, and this doesn’t mean just more charity to prop up the existing but failing system, as Prime Minister Rudd seems to perpetuate. This goes beyond the Victorian Bushfires. Under-resourcing is a fundamental problem with Australian bushfire management nationally.
The bushfire problem is only going to get worse given the trend toward hotter summers, prolonged droughts, climate change, arsonists and millions of houses now situated in bushfire prone areas. The answer is not to destroy vast swathes of bushland, which embers jump anyway sometimes spotting beyond 10km ahead of a fire front.
Detection, response and suppression are the measures of firefighting success criteria. Yet to adequately perform these, current bushfire management remains chronically under-resourced by all levels of government across Australia.
A fleet of Bombardier 415s (formerly Canadair CL-415) is a cost effective proactive investment in bushfire response and without doubt preferable to the $2 billion economic cost of Victoria’s 2009 bushfire catastrophe, ‘after the fact’.
Airborne Bushfire Fighting is proven effectiveBut do Australian bushfire fighters reject such effective airborne options because (1) they seem overkill?,(2) because of prejudice against American/Canadian tech solutions?, (3) State Government budget is so limited as to make them fanciful? (4) volunteer fire truck drivers can’t fly them so see their roles threatened? In the most dangerous bushfire scenarios – remote ignitions – which is more effective fire trucks or these magnificent machines?Airborne and ground force attack are not mutually exclusive; as in the military, they are critically interdependent.
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But also more manoeuvrable water-bombing rotary-wing aircraft like the Erikson Aircrane plus the dropping in of RAFT crews also deserve consideration particularly in rugged terrain, where Bombardiers would not be able to achieve water-bombing runs low enough to be effective.
The cultural problem is that bushfire management is typically fire-truck centric in its thinking, planning and response. And beware of pollies and their devoted fans lobbying red herrings and porkies to try to stimie investigation into these options, when really the debate is simply one of cost.But research needs to precede any investment.
A fire truck moves away from out of control flames from a bushfire in the Bunyip Sate Forest near the township of Tonimbuk, 125 kilometers (78 miles) west of Melbourne, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2009. Walls of flame roared across southeastern Australia, razing scores of homes, forests and farmland in the sunburned country’s worst wildfire disaster in a quarter century. (Source: AP Photo, ^http://archive.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/02/bushfires_in_victoria_australi.html)Fire trucks exposed to remote wildfire? What OH&S standard would permit this operation outside volunteer rural fire fighting?
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Australia’s peak bushfire research organisation, Bushfire CRC, in its August 2006 report on the merits of aerial suppression made the following key findings:
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Aerial suppression can be effective in providing support to ground crews and improving the probability of first attack success by 50 percent or more. (so relies on fast detection of ignitions)
For an aircraft to provide effective assistance it must be available at call, rapidly dispatched with minimal travel time and with logistical systems in place.
Air operations effectively integrated into the incident management structure and competent personnel are needed to be available to direct the operations for good outcomes.
The use of ground resources with initial aerial support is the most economically efficient approach to suppression.
The use of aircraft for first attack until ground resources reach the fire produces the best suppression outcome.
Large fixed wing air tankers such as a DC 10 are at a cost disadvantage. This is particularly the case for first attack when fires are small and where water drop accuracy is required. (…But no-one could argue that Victoria is now at a cost disadvantage without them..the economic bill alone is $2 Billion, which excludes the psychological, social and ecological costs).
Standby Bombardier must be a first strike capability for bushfire fighting …they are part of the performance solution, not the solution.
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The airborne response to ignition suppression is just one strategy. The bushfire management solution is complex. To be effective in preventing a repeat of Victoria’s tragic and disgraceful 7-Feb-09, demands massive public investment and organisation at a level only national resources can muster. Don’t deny the legacy of Victoria’s 173 bushfire victims to be remembered as a recurring Armistice Day. It is unacceptable for governments to dismiss bushfire deaths as a fate of nature.
"We're coming to you from the custodial lands of the Hairygowogulator and Tarantulawollygong, and pay respects to uncle and grandaddy elders past, present and emerging from their burrows. So wise to keep a distance out bush."
2009 Churchill Fire on Black Saturday – deliberately lit at 1:30pm
2009 Victorian Bushfires – Overview Map
Delburn Bushfire 30th January 2009 from NASA satellite
The 2009 Delburn Bushfire
A CFA firefighter runs out hose on Piggery Road at Boolarra 2nd February 2009.
(Photo by Greg Cahir)
Erickson S-64 Air-Crane Helitanker (N179AC)
2009 Bendigo Fire Map Overview
2009 Churchill Fire Map Overview
The very start of Churchill Bushfire
Photo taken looking south from Hunt Street, Morwell
‘Composition: vertical-panorama of the smoke from the Churchill Fires that have jumped containment lines near me’
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Plantations being incinerated in Churchill Bushfire
[Source: Hancock Watch, ^http://hancockwatch.nfshost.com/docs/09feb.htm]
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Brendan Sokaluk
Not the smartest bush arsonist, but then could he be?
Ignition Points of the 2009 Churchill Bushfire
[Source: ‘Brendan Sokaluk – the boy who played with fire’, by Patrick Carlyon, Herald Sun, 20120321, ^http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/true-crime-scene/brendan-sokaluk-the-boy-who-played-with-fire/story-fnat7jnn-1226305557238]
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Armageddon aftermath of Sokaluk’s 2009 Churchill Bushfire Arson – he’ll be out in just 14 years
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